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INSTITUTE FOR THE ECONOMY IN TRANSITION RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES APRIL 2002 MONTHLY BULLETIN Moscow 2002 Institute for the Economy in Transition, 1996. Licence, 02079 19 2000 .

5 Gazetny pereulok, Moscow 103918, Russian Federation Phone: (095) 203-88-16 Fax: (095) 202-42-24 E- Mail: todorov@iet.ru The State of the Federal Budget.......................................................................................................3 Monetary Policy...............................................................................................................................6 Financial Markets.............................................................................................................................8 Investment in the Real Sector.........................................................................................................16 The Real Sector: Factors and Trends..............................................................................................16 IET Business Survey: Industry.......................................................................................................19 Foreign Trade.................................................................................................................................21 On the Progress of Economic Reforms..........................................................................................23 Agricultural Land Transferability Law: Development Progress....................................................25 2 The State of the Federal Budget TABLE 1 THE MONTHLY EXECUTION OF THE FEDERAL BUDGET OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION (IN % OF GDP, IN COMPARABLE PRICES).

I`01 II`01 III`01 IV`01 V`01 VI`01 VII`01 VIII`01 IX`01 X`01 XI`01 XII`01 I`02 II`02 Revenues Corporate profit tax 1,4% 1,5% 1,9% 2,4% 2,6% 2,6% 2,5% 2,6% 2,5% 2,4% 2,4% 2,4% 1,4% 1,4% Personal income tax 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% VAT, special tax and excises 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 4,9% 4,4% Tax on foreign trade and foreign trade operations 9,0% 9,2% 9,0% 9,1% 9,3% 9,3% 9,2% 8,8% 8,6% 8,7% 8,9% 9,4% 9,3% 9,1% Other taxes, duties and payments 6,7% 6,8% 6,7% 6,7% 6,7% 6,7% 6,7% 6,5% 6,4% 6,5% 6,7% 7,1% 6,9% 6,4% Total- taxes and charges 2,3% 2,4% 2,3% 2,4% 2,5% 2,5% 2,4% 2,3% 2,2% 2,1% 2,2% 2,2% 2,4% 2,6% Non- tax revenues 3,6% 4,1% 4,1% 4,0% 3,9% 3,9% 3,9% 3,9% 3,8% 3,7% 3,7% 3,7% 3,2% 3,3% Revenues, total 1,1% 0,9% 0,8% 0,8% 0,7% 0,7% 2,2% 3,0% 3,7% 4,4% 0,7% 0,6% 9,7% 9,1% Expenditure 15,2% 15,7% 15,7% 16,3% 16,6% 16,5% 16,4% 16,0% 15,6% 15,5% 15,8% 16,2% 20,4% 19,6% Public administration 1,0% 1,1% 1,1% 1,2% 1,3% 1,2% 1,3% 1,3% 1,3% 1,3% 1,3% 1,4% 2,1% 1,6% National defense 16,2% 16,9% 16,9% 17,5% 17,8% 17,8% 17,7% 17,3% 16,8% 16,8% 17,1% 17,6% 22,4% 21,2% International activities Judicial power 0,1% 0,2% 0,3% 0,3% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,5% 0,1% 0,2% Law enforcement and security activities 1,3% 2,0% 2,2% 2,5% 2,7% 2,7% 2,7% 2,6% 2,6% 2,6% 2,6% 2,7% 1,0% 1,5% Fundamental research 0,3% 0,3% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,3% 0,4% 0,4% Services provided for the national economy 0,0% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,0% 0,1% Social services 0,7% 1,1% 1,3% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,5% 1,6% 0,6% 0,9% Servicing of public debt 0,0% 0,1% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,3% 0,0% 0,1% Other expenditure 0,1% 0,3% 0,6% 0,6% 0,8% 1,0% 1,0% 1,0% 1,0% 1,0% 1,1% 1,3% 0,1% 0,3% Expenditure, total 1,3% 1,6% 1,9% 2,1% 2,0% 2,1% 2,1% 2,1% 2,0% 2,1% 2,1% 2,3% 3,7% 4,8% Loans, redemption exclusive 3,2% 5,5% 4,7% 3,7% 3,3% 3,2% 2,9% 3,1% 3,2% 2,9% 2,7% 2,6% 2,0% 3,4% Expenditure and loans, redemption exclusive 3,3% 3,1% 2,9% 3,0% 3,1% 3,2% 3,1% 3,0% 3,0% 3,0% 3,0% 3,0% 2,9% 3,3% Budget deficit (-) 10,4% 14,4% 14,2% 14,1% 14,2% 14,5% 14,2% 14,2% 14,1% 13,9% 13,9% 14,7% 10,9% 15,0% Domestic financing 5,8% 2,5% 2,6% 3,4% 3,7% 3,3% 3,5% 3,1% 2,7% 2,9% 3,2% 2,9% 11,5% 6,2% Other taxes, duties and payments -3,7% -0,8% -0,6% -1,1% -1,7% -1,3% -1,1% -1,2% -0,9% -0,6% -0,9% -0,1% 11,2% -4,6% Total- taxes and charges -2,1% -1,7% -2,1% -2,3% -2,0% -2,0% -2,4% -1,9% -1,8% -2,3% -2,3% -2,8% -0,4% -1,6% Non- tax revenues -5,8% -2,5% -2,6% -3,4% -3,7% -3,4% -3,5% -3,1% -2,7% -2,9% -3,2% -2,9% 11,5% -6,2% * % ; ** TABLE 2. THE MONTHLY EXECUTION OF THE FEDERAL BUDGET OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION (IN % GDP, ACTUAL FINANCING) I`01 II`01 III`01 IV`01 V`01 VI`01 VII`01 VIII`01 IX`01 X`01 XI`01 XII`01 I`02 II`02 III`Total 16,2% 16,9% 16,9% 17,5% 17,8% 17,9% 17,7% 17,3% 16,8% 16,8% 16,9% 17,6% 22,2% 21,0% 20,9% Public administration 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% National defense 2,4% 2,5% 2,8% 2,8% 2,9% 2,9% 2,9% 2,9% 2,8% 2,8% 2,8% 2,9% 1,7% 2,4% 2,4% International activities 0,5% 0,4% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,3% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,3% 0,3% 0,4% 0,2% 0,3% Judicial power 0,2% 0,2% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% Law enforcement and security 1,7% 2,0% 1,9% 1,8% 1,8% 1,8% 1,8% 1,7% 1,7% 1,7% 1,6% 1,7% 1,6% 1,4% 1,4% activities Fundamental research 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,7% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,2% Services provided for the 0,5% 0,9% 1,0% 1,0% 1,1% 1,3% 1,2% 1,3% 1,2% 1,2% 1,2% 1,4% 0,3% 0,6% 0,8% national economy Social services 2,4% 2,6% 2,5% 2,7% 2,6% 2,6% 2,5% 2,5% 2,3% 2,4% 2,3% 2,3% 5,0% 5,7% 5,3% Servicing of public debt 3,2% 5,5% 4,7% 4,3% 3,9% 3,2% 2,9% 3,2% 3,2% 2,9% 2,7% 2,6% 1,9% 3,4% 3,5% Other expenditure 3,7% 3,5% 3,2% 2,5% 2,7% 3,3% 3,2% 3,2% 2,6% 3,1% 3,0% 3,0% 3,5% 4,0% 4,0% Total expenditure 15,3% 18,3% 17,2% 16,4% 16,2% 16,3% 15,7% 15,9% 15,5% 15,2% 14,8% 15,0% 15,5% 18,7% 18,6% Proficit (+) / deficit (-) 0,9% -1,4% -0,3% 1,1% 1,7% 1,6% 2,0% 1,5% 1,3% 1,6% 2,1% 2,6% 6,8% 2,3% 2,4% The data on the execution of the federal budget 15.0 % of GDP (18.7 % of GDP in terms of fulfilled funding (the execution of the budget in in JANUARY of 2002 are presented in Table 11.

terms of fulfilled (actual) financing is equal to the As of March 1, 2002, the revenues of the federal sum of the funds transferred to managers of budget budget accounted for 21.2 % of GDP, including tax funds, while the cash execution of the budget is revenues at 19.6 %, while expenditures made up equal to the sum of funds spent by managers of funds (i.e. without account of funds remained on Because of the estimated data on GDP, the indices may their accounts), including non-interest ones 11.be subject to revision % of GDP (15.1 % of GDP in terms of fulfilled the level registered in the preceding year (3.4 % of funding). The level of budget surplus accounted for GDP in 2002 and 5.5 % in 2001). The expenditures 6.2 % of GDP (2.3 % of GDP in terms of fulfilled for national defense decreased by 0.5 p. p. of GDP funding). (down to 1.5 % of GDP) in comparison to the level The indicators of revenues collected over two observed in 2001. The structure of social months of 2002 somewhat declined as compared to expenditures was, similarly to the situation in the figures registered in January, however, the January) dominated by the Pension Funds overall decline was not very significant. The tax subsidies for labor pensions at the expense of the revenues in January through February of 2002 single social tax (SSE) (3.1 % of GDP in terms of made 15.5 % of GDP (without the single social fulfilled funding in January of 2002). As concerns tax). the fulfilled funding, the expenditures by end I A certain decline in VAT collection over two quarter of 2002 made 18.6 %, what is 1.4 p. p. of months of 2002 as compared to the last year GDP above the level of the preceding quarter.

indicators (6.4 % of GDP in 2002 and 6.8 % of As of late March, the balances of accounts on GDP in 2001) shall be noted, at the same time, accounting the federal budget funds (without regard there was registered a significant decline in taxes to the funds accumulated on personal accounts of levied on foreign trade (3.3 % of GDP in 2002 and recipients of budget funds) grew up by Rb. 59 bln.

4.1 % of GDP in 2001). (2.6 % of GDP) in terms of cash execution of the The expenditures for the servicing of the public budget and decreased by 1.5 bln. (0.2 % of GDP) in debt were similarly to the January indicators below terms of the fulfilled execution of the budget.

TABLE 3. ACTUAL TAX REVENUES TO THE FEDERAL BUDGET, ACCORDING TO THE DATA OF THE MTC (IN % OF THE DATA FOR JANUARY OF 1999)* I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 100,0% 115,1% 122,0% 122,1% 104,5% 112,9% 127,0% 127,5% 124,3% 141,4% 160,8% 213,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 149,3% 160,5% 181,3% 205,8% 233,1% 186,9% 181,0% 186,4% 173,1% 181,1% 201,7% 254,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 204,4% 198,4% 227,6% 267,5% 252,2% 233,3% 231,9% 235,6% 219,4% 237,5% 247,3% 360,6% I II III 218,7% 187,1% 240,9% * It was decided to choose January of 1999 as the benchmark in order to render the comparison more reliable. January of 1999 is not a remarkable date in terms of tax revenues.

The level of tax revenues of the federal budget in March of 2002 (without SST) in comparable prices was a most significant over the last three years. The higher level was registered only in April through May of 2001.

The dynamics of actual tax debts to the federal budget is presented in Figure 12. A certain stabilization of the dynamics of increase in tax arrears registered by end-2001 was also observed in the early 2002. Therefore, there occurred neither considerable increase or decrease in arrears.

Since 2001 the form of the MTCs presentation of the respective statistical data has been changed, and the data on debts to the federal budget across all the taxes are no longer available. Since January of 2002 the practice of balancing the data on the arrears against the amount of tax surplus has been ceased. In this relation the figure presents the data on the gross unbalanced tax arrears for comparability purposes.

Figure 1. Rate of growth of the real tax arrears to the federal budget (in % to July 1999) 200% 180% Profit tax VAT 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% TABLE 4. EXECUTION OF THE RF CONSOLIDATED BUDGET (IN % OF GDP).

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 16,2% 17,4% 18,1% 19,3% 19,7% 19,8% 19,8% 19,4% 18,8% 18,5% 18,6% 19,6% Revenues 18,8% 20,1% 21,2% 22,4% 23,0% 23,2% 23,2% 22,9% 22,3% 22,0% 22,0% 24,5% Expenditures 25,3% 23,8% 27,0% 28,1% 28,6% 29,5% 29,4% 28,6% 27,4% 26,9% 27,1% 29,5% Deficit -6,5% -3,7% -5,8% -5,7% -5,7% -6,3% -6,2% -5,7% -5,2% -5,0% -5,0% -5,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 16,8% 16,6% 18,1% 19,9% 20,1% 20,5% 20,8% 20,8% 20,3% 20,2% 20,9% 22,1% Revenues 19,2% 18,9% 20,6% 22,7% 23,2% 23,9% 24,3% 24,5% 24,1% 24,0% 24,8% 26,3% Expenditures 18,6% 20,3% 23,6% 25,6% 26,6% 27,3% 27,4% 27,4% 26,7% 26,3% 26,7% 29,2% Deficit 0,6% -1,5% -3,1% -3,0% -3,4% -3,4% -3,1% -2,9% -2,7% -2,3% -1,9% -2,9% I II III IV V VI VII VIII I X XI XII Taxes 20,8% 21,4% 22,6% 24,2% 25,5% 25,4% 24,9% 24,8% 24,1% 23,7% 24,0% 24,6% Revenues 24,4% 24,8% 26,4% 28,2% 29,7% 29,7% 29,3% 29,2% 28,4% 28,0% 28,6% 30,0% Expenditures 19,6% 21,1% 23,8% 24,8% 25,2% 25,5% 22,3% 25,1% 24,5% 24,2% 24,6% 27,0% Deficit 4,7% 3,7% 2,6% 3,4% 4,5% 4,3% 7,0% 4,1% 3,9% 3,8% 4,0% 3,0% I II III IV V VI VII VIII I XI XII Taxes 22,7% 23,6% 23,9% 25,4% 26,4% 26,0% 26,1% 25,9% 25,0% 24,8% 25,4% 27,1% Revenues 25,9% 27,1% 27,4% 29,3% 30,5% 29,8% 29,9% 29,7% 28,3% 28,2% 28,8% 29,5% Expenditures 16,8% 22,8% 23,7% 24,7% 25,1% 25,3% 25,5% 25,6% 24,9% 24,7% 25,0% 25,6% Deficit 9,1% 4,2% 3,7% 4,7% 5,4% 4,4% 4,4% 4,1% 3,5% 3,5% 3,8% 3,9% I II Taxes 28,7% 23,6% Revenues 32,9% 31,3% Expenditures 18,3% 23,7% Deficit 14,6% 7,7% * The level of tax revenues of the consolidated remains at a high level as compared to the figures budget over two months of 2002 declined in registered over previous years.

comparison to January. It may be primarily The estimate of tax revenues of the consolidated explained by a considerable decrease in tax and federal budgets is presented in the table (for the revenues of territorial budgets. At the same time, description of REM model see the preceding the expenditures of both territorial budgets and the bulletin). The estimate was revised as compared to federal budget grew substantially as a share in the indicators presented in the preceding bulletin GDP. The surplus of the consolidated budget still basing on the new data on the execution of the consolidated and federal budgets.

June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January In this bulletin we are using the data of REM adequately reflects the season character of tax model which from our point of view most revenues of the consolidated and federal budgets.

( ( ) ) REM 844 22,5% 13,1% 5,9% 2,7% 2,4% 4,9% 845 23,2% 12,9% 7,1% 2,5% 2,3% 4,8% 872 19,7% 12,1% 4,5% 1,7% 2,5% 5,1% S. Batkibekov Monetary Policy In March 2002 the consumer price index rose by The respective increments equalled 4.2% (7.3% in 1.1%. It was prices for services that contributed to Q1, 2001) and 2.7% (4.0%).

the index growth at most (3.7%). Specifically, In April 2002 the weekly CPI growth rates prices for housing and facilities grew by 6.3%. The practically remained unchanged compared with growth of prices for food stuffs did not exceed those of March 2002 (see Fig. 1). According to 0.5%, and for non-food gods 0.7%. So, over the preliminary estimates, the inflation rate in April first quarter of 2002 the inflation rate amounted to roughly amounted to 1.3%. At the same time, it is 5.5% (23.8% annualised). For reference, in the first worth noting that the current weekly CPI growth quarter of 2001 consumer prices rose by 7.2%. The rates are approximately at 0.15 percentage point commodity structure of changes in prices indicates below the average level for March and April 2001.

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