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50 000,40 000,30 000,20 000,10 000,1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Federal agricultural budget Consolidated agricultural budget Source: RF Ministry of Finance.

Picture 1. Consolidated and federal budget expenditures on agriculture, million rubles in constant 1999 prices (2004 - estimate) 10, 5, 2000 2001 2002 -5, 0 -1 0, 0 -1 5, 0 Source: own calculations.

Picture 2. Producer support estimate (PSE), % 2004 (January-November) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Federal Regional Local Source: RF Ministry of Finance.

Picture 3. Structure of consolidated budget support to agriculture Table Structure of federal budget expenditures on agriculture in 2001-2005, thousand rubles 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005 execu- execu- execu- execu- plan draft as % of struction tion tion tion 2004 ture Agricultural production (subsidies) 6608 12468 20281 22365 22602 92% 53% Land resources 6 699 6 959 1 347 1401 1 2209 111% 5% State support of grain inspection institutions 41 57 98 138 0 0% 0% Investments in authorized capital of the leasing 870 2 company 0 0% 0% Forming of authorized capital of Rosselkhozbank 2 000 1 420 850 (Russian Agricultural Bank) 0 0% Science 113 187 172 200 301 142% 1% Russian Academy of Agricultural Sciences 739 1 056 1 496 1747 1 2319 116% 5% Education 2 929 3 751 5 350 6461 7 8548 109% 20% Fixed capital investments (from 2002 in agricul- 711 347 247 1146 0 2435 6% tural production, 2005 non-program investments and construction) Fixed capital investments / Special federal pro- gram Soil fertility improvement in Russia in 2002-2005 1884 4% Ministry staff 99 129 142 167 378 142% 1% International activities 16 0 365 10 1% 0% Healthcare 12 14 107% 0% Social policies 4 5 0 0% 0% Financial assistance to regional and local budgets 374 2 1634 0 0% 0% including: Special federal program Rural social development till 2010 2172 5% Other expenditures 96 33 0,4 0 0% Total expenditures on agriculture 18 036 27 349 30 555 37 361 39 42 872 107% 100% Source: RF Ministry of Finance.

Table Subsidies to agriculture in 2000-2005, million rubles 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005 execu- execu- execu- execu- plan draft as % of struction tion tion tion 2004 ture Support to livestock production 603 945 1 100 1 194 1 745 62% 3% including: Pedigree stock-breeding 298 619 703 744 745 100% 3% Subsidies to wool producers 142 256 327 350 0% 0% Reindeer breeding 70 70 100 0% 0% Purchase of formula feeds 162 0% Support to crop production 223 554 622 1 170 2 270 2670 118% 12% including:

Elite seed growing 68 248 270 270 770 285% 3% Subsidies to producers of flax and hemp 72 85 67 100 0% 0% Partial compensation of expenditures on crop - 222 285 800 1 900 1900 100% 8% insurance Other expenditures 2 998 686 5 530 2 153 2 1754 64% 8% including:

Building of federal reserve of veterinary drugs 0% Subsidies to waste disposal plants 3 39 40 0% Centralized delivery of seeds to northern and 140 mountain regions 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005 execu- execu- execu- execu- plan draft as % of struction tion tion tion 2004 ture Subsidies to horticulture and grape growing 300 0% Building of pesticide reserve 300 0% Creation of leasing fund 2 624 5 500 2 0% Building of federal seed reserve 100 150 80 0% Fixed capital expenditures 865 0% Other 275 647 955 0% Maintenance of subordinate institutions 2 505 2 888 6 144 8 964 9 9531 103% 42% Environment protection 59 0% Subsidizing of interest on credits 1 627 2 017 3 200 3 5370 168% 24% Including: short-term credits 1 400 2 000 0% Long-term credits 617 1 200 0% out of them: credits on construction of port 130 elevators 0% Seasonal crediting -37 0% Program Soil fertility improvement - 4 767 4 531 4 1683 37% 7% including: 0% Partial compensation of mineral fertilizers cost 83* 237 2 100 0% Special federal program Rural social devel- 1470 1 opment** 1 0% 0% Subventions for financing food grain pur- 1152 chase interventions 250 1% State administration expenditures Support to individual farmers 0% Total 6 297 12 468 20 281 22 365 24 22602 92% 100% * in 2000 purchase of mineral fertilizers was subsidized outside the program Soil fertility improvement.

** in 2005 this item includes only direct subsidies in the framework of this program while investment expenditures are presented in Table 1.

Source: RF Ministry of Finance.

Table Investments in Leasing fund from the federal budget (prior to 1997 billion rubles, after 1998 million rubles) 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Plan 1000 1351 2700 2400 2000 2280 2624 3000 0 870 Actual allocations 1053.6 1080.6 1928.9 736.6 1007 2241 2624 5 500 0 870 n.a.

Source: RF Ministry of Finance.

Table The incidence of insured events in the sampled farms 2002 Number of positive responses 23 as % of the total number of insured farms 79 Number of negative responses 14 including given by insured farms 6 5* as % of the total number of insured farms 21 12* including given by non-insured farms 8 as % of the total number of non-insured farms 57 * 4 of the insured farms did not answer this question.

Source: results of the sample survey conducted by the AFE Centre in Perm oblast in 2004, 49 agricultural enterprises.

1,1,1,Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

0,0,0,Source: calculated using data of the Federal service of state statistics.

Picture 4. Ratio of monthly price indices for bread and bakery products and for food products at large O. Shick, E. Serova Foreign trade Still favorable, the world market conjuncture, and also growth of the effective demand for both population and domestic enterprises exerted positive influence on the development of the foreign economic activity throughout 2004. In November 2004, the Russias major foreign trade indices reached its maximum for all observation period since 1994.

In January 2005, a new procedure of goods carriage had been introduced, as well as new rates of customs collections implemented for clearance, accompanying, and goods storage at warehouses.

In November 2004, the Russias foreign trade turnover, calculated according to the balance of payment methodology, made up USD 26.8 bn, which is by 47,3% higher than in November of previous year. In so doing, considerable growth had been observed of both export and import. The export value volume had grown by 54%, in comparison with the same indicator of previous year, and made up USD 17.8 bn. Import deliveries had grown to USD 9 bn, which is by 33% higher than the level of November 2003.

As a result of priority rates of export dynamics throughout 2004, very high growth rates of the balance of trade had been observed, which in November 2004 made USD 8.8 bn vs USD 4.8 bn in November 2003.

For all the period of observations since 1994 Russia had not seen such high indices of foreign trade.

-1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Balance Export Import Source: Goskomstat of the RF Figure 1. Major Indices of the Russian Foreign Trade (bn dollars) The record growth of Russian export had been achieved basically due to continued utterly favorable world market conjuncture. Despite the reduction of prices of some of goods of the Russian export in November 2004, they are still at a very high level. According to the Bank of Russia estimates, in November 2004 vs previous month, the world prices with account of the export structure by aggregate of goods, including about 65% of its value, reduced on average by 7.2%. But vs November 2003 they were higher by 28,1%.

On average, in November vs October 2004, the price of oil Brent reduced by 13,5% (to USD 43.bn per barrel), while Urals - by 12,4% (to USD 37.3 bn per barrel). In comparison with November 2003, an average oil price of Brent was higher by 50,7%, while Urals - by 35%.

According to monitoring of the RF Government, an average oil price of Russian oil Urals became, in November-December, about USD 35,76 bn per barrel. Proceeding from the marginal rates of dues established by the law On the Customs Tariff, the oil export duty rate is reduced since February 1, 2005 from USD 101 to USD 83 dollars per ton.

The foreign exchange revenues from export of Russian oil in January-November 2004 made up USD 52.9 bn, which by 47,7% exceed the revenues for the same period of last year. The oil production for 11 months reached in the country 419.3 mln t., which by 9,2% exceeds oil production in the same period of previous year. The oil sales on the domestic market increased by 2,1% (to 177.6 mln t.), export deliveries by 13,3% (to 234.4 mln t.).

The share of oil export deliveries in the volume of Russias export in January-November 2004 constituted 32,6%, in the export of fuel and energy products 56,6% (in January-November 2003, such indicators constituted 29,7% and 51,7% correspondingly).

In November Russia ranked next to Saudi Arabia by production of oil. According to OPEC data, Russia extracted in November 9 mln barrels per day, Saudi Arabia - 9,475 mln barrels.

In November 2004, the prices of oil products also went down. As compared to previous month, the price of diesel fuel lowered by 8,7%, gasoline - by 8%, fuel oil - by 20,5%. On average, oil products went down by 12,8%. In comparison with November 2003, the prices of oil products were, on average, 1,3 times higher (the price of became 1.5 times higher, diesel fuel - 1,6 times, fuel oil became cheaper by 8,8%).

In November of 2004, vs previous month, the prices of natural gas became higher by 2,7% in Europe, in the U.S. they went down by 5%. In comparison with November 2003, the price of natural gas in Europe became higher by 27%, while in the U.S. - by 34%.

In November 2004, the world prices for products of the Russian fuel and energy complex went down, vs previous month, on average by 8,7%, and in comparison with November 2003, they were higher 1.3 times.

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Reduction of aluminum prices in November 2004 could be explained basically by growth of demand for this metal.

The rise in copper prices, which continued since July 2004, had been caused by existing shortage of this non-ferrous metal on the world market. As before, rising of copper shortfall on the world market is made for by an increase of consumption of this metal. In January-August 2004, the demand for copper increased by 5,9%, vs the same period of previous year, and reached 10.9 mln tons.

Changes in the world prices of nickel in 2004 to a large extent depend on the rates of Chinas economic growth. The demand for it on the part of PRC is increased by the rates surpassing growth of demand of other countries.

In November 2004, vs October, the prices of non-ferrous metals went down on average by 0,6%, with aluminum to be made cheaper by 0,3%, nickel by 2,7%, copper got up by 3,7%. Relative to November 2003, the prices of non-ferrous metals were on average 1,2 times higher (aluminum went up by 20%, copper - by 52%, nickel - by 16%).

TABLE 1.

Monthly Average World Prices in November of Corresponding Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Oil (Brent), USD/barrel 22.8 17.8 11.5 24.1 25.6 19.35 24.4 28.6 43.Natural gas, USD/1 mln. 3.093 2.393 2.251 2.558 5.767 2.843 4.11 4.876 6.BTU Gasoline, USD/gallon 0.6691 0.5648 0.3739 0.6986 0.7649 0.5454 0.7203 0.845 1.Copper, USD/t 2273.3 1834.7 1601.6 1748.1 1914.4 1481.0 1610.0 2052.0 3123.Aluminum, USD/t 1459.9 1535.5 1305.0 1470.7 1562.5 1326.6 1373.4 1507.0 1814.Nickel, USD/t 6920.0 6099.0 4202.0 7984.2 7315.4 5159.7 7316.7 12090.0 14026.Source: based on the data of the London Metal Exchange, International Oil Exchange (London) Serious obstacle to further increase of export is control of access of Russian goods to foreign markets. As of December 24, 2004, in relation to Russian goods are in effect 113 restrictive measures, including 52 antidumping duties, 2 protective duties, 10 quotas, 4 restrictions on prices, 1 restriction on nomenclature of goods, 4 bans on imports, 2 additional taxes, 1 tariff quota, 1 technical barrier, phytosanitary measure, 1 excise. Also, the Byelorussian party uses 15 restrictive measures. In addition, Russian commodities are subjected to 8 antidumping and 11 special protective investigations. Main countries where there are restrictions with regard to Russian export are European Union countries (restrictive measures), Byelorussia (15), the Ukraine (12), USA (10), India (8).

At the end of December of 2004 the RF Federation Government approved the new rates of customs collections to be paid by citizens and entrepreneurs for customs services concerning clearance, accompanying and goods storage at warehouses.

In accordance with the rules being in effect before the beginning of 2005, payment for goods clearance was established in percentage from the cost of shipped cargo 0,15%. Now, clearance value is expressed as fixed sums and varied from Rb 500 to Rb 100 000, depending on commodity value. For example, if the cargo value does not exceed Rb 200000, the size of tariff rate will be Rb 500. To clear a commodity which value is not more than Rb 450000, it will be needed Rb 1 000., while the cargo that costs Rb 1.2 million, may be cleared for Rb 2 000. For the most expensive cargoes, which value is over Rb 30 million, clearance will cost Rb 100 000. In practice, those figures mean 1,5 times increase of the cost of clearing at a minimum. For inexpensive cargo carriers, the rates will rise on average more than two times.

The conditions of car imports became more severe: rates of charges increased twice as much and constitute now from Rb 500 to 100 thousand, depending on the cost of the car. In this case, new rules are effective for both - juridical and natural persons.

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