rates % share % 20 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV -1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 -----30 The share of unemployed in % of the economically active population Real incomes – the rates of increase in comparison to the respective period of the preceding year GDP – the rates of increase in comparison to the respective period of the preceding year Figure 2. Changes in the rates of growth in GDP, real household incomes, and the share of unemployed in the period of 1998 through 2004, in % An analysis of the dynamics of real incomes in the period of recovery growth demonstrates that the outpacing rates of growth in wages and salaries had the dominating influence on the nature of changes in social parameters. The rise of the share of remuneration of hired labor in the structure of GDP was related to the persisting trend towards the outpacing rates of growth in wages and salaries in comparison with the productivity of labor. These developments in the sphere of labor remuneration was accompanied by a decline in the gross revenues of the economy from 43 per cent in 2000 to 40.5 per cent in 2004.
Table Structure of GDP formation as broken down by revenue sources in 1999 through 2003, in % of the total 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004* Gross Domestic Product 100 100 100 100 100 Including:
Wages and salaries, including concealed wages and salaries 40,1 40,2 43,0 46,6 46,0 46,Net taxes on production and imports 15,7 17,1 15,7 14,1 13,7 12,Gross profit of the economy and gross mixed revenues 44,2 42,7 41,3 39,3 40,3 40,*) preliminary data Source: Federal Service of State Statistics The persistence of the dynamics of internal demand was based on the growth in real wages and salaries and household incomes, and was accompanied by the redistribution of incomes from enterprises to the population. These developments resulted in the end in an increase in production costs and a decline in the profitability of production. In 2004, the growth in real household incomes made 7.8 per cent, while real wages and salaries increased by 10.8 per cent. Although in 2003 at the background of an intensive growth in production there were observed more similar dynamics of increase in labor productivity and wages and salaries, the impact of this process on the changes in the indicators of efficiency of operations conducted by enterprises and organizations remained extremely weak and unstable. In 2004, the gap between the rates of growth in labor productivity and wages and salaries grew in favor of the latter, what had a negative impact on the qualitative indicators of economic dynamics.
O. I. Izryadnova Oil and Gas Sector Development of the oil and gas sector of economy in 2004 was characterized by maintaining the production growth trend. In comparison with previous year, an increase of oil production, including gas condensate made 8,9%, which chiefly can be explained by growth in exports. The world oil prices were at extra high level, which allowed to considerably increase the export revenues. The current situation on the world oil market allows to count on maintaining in the near future the high level of world’s oil price and favorable external conditions for the development of the oil and gas sector.
The determining influence on the situation in the oil and gas sector of the Russian economy is made by price situation on the world oil market. Because of high growth rates of the world economy, limitation of oil production by OPEC countries during the first half of the year and drop in oil production in Iraq, the world oil prices were, in 2004, extra high. Reduction of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico as a result of September hurricane, disorders in the river Niger estuary, and also strikes in Nigeria, Norway and Brazil made for high price maintenance. As a result, the oil price of Brent reached, in October 2004, USD 49.6/barrel, while the price of Russian oil Urals - USD 42.3/barrel. In 2004, an average price of OPEC oil basket considerably exceeded the targeted pricing marginal rate USD 2228/barrel, set by the organization, and on average made USD 36.1/barrel. In 2004, an average price of Russian oil Urals reached on the world (European) market USD 34.4/barrel, or by 27,2% exceeded the average level of previous year (Table 1).
Table World Oil Prices in 2003-2004, $/barrel 2003 2004 2004 2004 1 qu. 2 qu. 3 qu. 4 qu.
Brent oil price, Great 28.83 31.95 35.36 41.54 44.Britain Urals oil price, Russia 27.04 28.94 32.54 37.41 38.Price of OPEC oil basket 28.13 30.80 34.41 38.97 40.Source: OECD International Energy Agency, OPEC.
The development of the oil and gas sector of economy in 2004 was characterized by maintaining the growth trend of oil and oil products production, existing in 2000-2003. In 2004, as compared to previous year, an increase in the volume of oil production, including gas condensate, made up 8,9%, while an increase in the volume of primary oil refining – 2,6%. Continuation of the growth of natural gas production (started in 2002) is observed, which reached in 2004 1,6% (Table 2). In so doing, some drop had been observed in investment activity in the oil sector: in January-November 2004, the volume of exploitation drilling decreased by 1,3% vs the same period of previous year, oil prospecting drilling - by 18,9%, which may be explained by rather high crude reserves, putting into service new oil wells reduced by 3,1%. In the oil refining industry the production of oil products with the use of intensifying technologies increased in January-November by 1,0%, while the refining intensity rate increased from 70,2% in January-November 2003 to 71,5% in January-November 2004. The share of high-octane gasoline in the automobile fuel output increased form 52,9% in January-November to 55,5% in 2004.
Table Production of Oil, Oil Products and Natural Gas in 2000-2004, in % to previous year 2000 2001 2002 2003 Oil, including gas condensate 106.0 107.7 109.0 111.0 108.Oil 105.9 107.7 108.7 111.1 108.Gas condensate 103.8 106.7 112.8 108.7 116.Primary oil refining 102.7 103.2 103.3 102.7 102.Automobile fuel 103.6 100.6 104.9 101.2 103.Diesel fuel 104.9 102.0 104.7 102.0 102.Fuel oil 98.3 104.2 107.1 100.3 97.Natural gas, billion cub. m. 98.5 99.2 101.9 103.4 101.Oil gas, billion cub. m 102.5 105.0 110.5 119.3 106.Source: Federal State Statistics Service.
In 2004, a noticeable rise in prices of oil and oil products had been observed in the domestic market largely explained by enhancement of oil export. Thanks to high world prices of oil, in oil exportation the transport schemes became effective that use rail and river. In November, an average domestic oil price (producer's price) in dollars reached USD 121.2 per ton, while an average price of automobile fuel - USD 353.9 per ton, which is a maximum price level of oil and automobile fuel for all the period of reforms. Over the last few months, gas prices noticeably exceeded those existed before devaluation period, and reached USD 10 per 1 thou. cub.m. (Table 3, Fig. 1, 2).
Table Domestic Prices of Oil, Oil Products and Natural Gas in 2000-2004, (average producer’s prices, $/t) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 December December December December June November Oil 54.9 49.9 60.7 70.1 87.5 121.Automobile fuel 199.3 151.5 168.8 236.9 275.1 353.Diesel fuel 185.0 158.5 153.8 214.3 244.6 359.Fuel oil 79.7 47.1 66.1 66.0 94.9 79.Gas, $/ thou. cub.m 3.1 4.8 5.9 4.4 9.7 10.Source: calculated according to the data of the Federal State Statistics Service.
In January-October, the oil exports increased, vs the same period of last year, by 13,0%, oil products – by 4,4% (Table 4). The export share of diesel fuel was 54,1 %, fuel oil - 64,3%, automobile fuel - 14,1% (for comparison: in 1999 the export share in automobile fuel production made up only 7,2%).
The high world prices of oil determined the considerable growth of revenues from export. In value terms, the oil exports in January-October 2004 increased by 45,2%, as compared to the same period of previous year, which more than three times exceeds an increase of the volume of export. The share of oil export in the total volume of Russian export in January-November 2004 made 32,6% (in JanuaryNovember 2003 – 29,7%). The total cost of oil exports of basic types of oil products in JanuaryOctober 2004 reached USD 52.5 bn. The growth of export revenues of the oil sector of economy provided considerable increase of tax revenues to the government budget and allowed oil companies to keep low level of payables.
As a result of growth of domestic prices of oil products and raising the real ruble rate of exchange, the imports of oil products increased. On the whole, the imports of oil products in January-October 2004 increased 3,2 times in comparison with the same period of last year. At that, the automobile fuel imports increased 7,6 times vs previous year, and the import share of automobile fuel went up from 0,2% to 1,6%. Still, the import share remains very low (for comparison: in the first half of 1998, that is, before ruble devaluation, the import share of automobile fuel constituted 8,7%).
In comparison with previous year, the growth rates of gas exportation went ahead, which largely was caused by an increase of gas deliveries to CIS (in January-October 2004, of gas deliveries to those countries increased by 15,8%).
Table Exportation of Oil, Oil Products and Natural Gas from Russia, in % to relevant period of previous year 2002 2003 January-October Oil, total 113.9 117.8 113.including:
to not CIS countries 109.9 118.9 114.to CIS countries 137.3 112.4 106.Oil products, total 118.5 103.6 104.including:
to not CIS countries 119.1 102.6 103.to CIS countries 102.8 132.3 132.Gas, total 102.4 102.0 106.Source: Federal State Statistics Service.
As an analysis of the situation on the world oil market shows, in the short term one may expect maintaining the high level of oil prices of oil. According to the base variant of the last (January 2005) forecast of the Department of Energy, the world oil price, defined as an average oil price imported into the U.S. in 2005 will constitute 36,6 $/barrel With account of the actual, for the end of 2004, ratios between the price of oil Brent, Urals and an average price of oil imported into the U.S., the price of oil Brent this year will constitute, in this case, around USD 40 $/barrel, and the price of Urals – USD 35.$/barrel (Table 5).
Table Forecast of the World Oil Price in 2005, $/barrel 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 (forecast) Average price of oil imported into the U.S.* 27.72 22.01 23.69 27.74 36.1 36.Price of oil Brent 28.50 24.44 25.02 28.83 38.2 40.Price of oil Urals 26.63 22.97 23.73 27.04 34.4 35.*Producer’s prices in deals with oil refineries.
Source: U.S. Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration, IEA, author’s estimates.
According to the latest forecasts of the leading foreign and some Russian organizations, the world price of oil Brent in 2005 will be kept at a very high level and will constitute about 35-40 $/barrel, which will meet the world price of Russian oil Urals at USD 31.5-35.5 $/barrel This makes possible to expect maintaining in the short run of favorable external conditions for forming the revenue side of the state budget and development of the oil and gas sector.
130 Нефть Газ (правая шкала) 0 Source: calculated according to the data of the Federal State Statistics Service.
Fig.1. Average Producer’s Prices of Oil and Gas in 1992-2004, $/t, $/thou. cub. m окт окт авг авг дек дек сен сен янв янв апр ноя апр ноя мар май мар май июн июл июл фев фев Бензин Мазут Source: calculated according to the data of the Federal State Statistics Service.
Fig.2. Average Producer’s Prices of Automobile and Fuel Oil in 1992-2004, $/t Yu.N. Bobylev IET Business Survey: Industry in January of A slight acceleration of the rates of growth in industrial output registered in December by IET surveys and confirmed by the official statistics three weeks later has failed to become the beginning of a period of recovery of the previous dynamics of output. Long national holidays have negatively affected the situation in the Russian industry. While in January of 2005 the growth in demand indicated by the enterprises’ evaluations decelerated at a slower rates than those registered a year ago, the rates of growth in output slowed down much more than at that time.
The data published by the Rosstat indicate that the trend towards the recovery of industry observed at the end of 2004 persisted. According to the appraisals presented by the the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short Term Prognostication (CMASTP), in December the increase in the average daily volumes of output made 0.2 per cent similarly to the average monthly increases registered in the 4th quarter (as adjusted for the seasonal factor). In December, in individual industries there were registered the following most important positive trends: the persistence of recovery processes in mechanical engineering, acceleration of the rates of growth in output in timber and paper industries, continuing moderate growth in output of food industry. Among the negative trends there may be indicated the following: the continuing decline in oil extraction, the end of recovery in ferrous metallurgy, a decline in the volumes of output of construction materials. On the whole, according to the data presented by the Rosstat in 2004 the industrial output index made 106.1 per cent as compared with 107.0 per cent registered in 2003.
An absolute decline in demand, which, similarly to the situation observed a year ago, started in December made 26 p. p. in January (the data is not adjusted for the seasonal factor). Sales diminished across all industries. A most intensive decline was registered in light and construction industries. After the adjustment for the seasonal factor, the balance of changes in demand made -1 p. p., what is comparable with the figures registered in January, July, and September of 2004. The dynamics of sales registered in January of 2005 were, therefore, not the worst as compared with the data observed last year.
Материалы этого сайта размещены для ознакомления, все права принадлежат их авторам.
Если Вы не согласны с тем, что Ваш материал размещён на этом сайте, пожалуйста, напишите нам, мы в течении 1-2 рабочих дней удалим его.