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P. Xoepaa (e-e-H, eu) POHOPOBAHE PABT OHTOB C OMO OMTEPHOO OHTEHT-AHAA B cae pecaa pa ox cya ( coao cepe, eyapox

ooex ..) peoe eo, ocoa a ye papa ey y oa: opeoc opoa opeoc aa, pcycy ecax, oope opaa aapyey cya. aop x yx oo pac cac c oo oepoo oaooo coap. a a papa ey oa eo poc o aee ceecye cooeceo o ee ppe o oocpe oa (o o aaa o). Meo opooa a ecox epayp x poeex ecax cye oecx epo.

ee coa: o, poo, oe-aa, oa, ope oc, ac, ec, o, poa, oece ep, oa.

aa oo ey , oea, ocyapca pecae ecoe epec a cooo, a eoo pa cex ay, a cxoo, ooo, co p, eop eyapox ooe p. Cooecye c ceoa c ocoeo a cee coaaeo o ooc npeuem pae oo cya, .e. ocyec poo, cmpanoupy aaeoe pae oa. Oa oooce oca oox aopo opac o mem-aauy mecmo, copooax paccapaee cya.

Poep Xoepaa poeccop aoecoo yepcea ea, aye cxoo. E-mail: Robert.Hogenraad@psp.ucl.ac.be.

epeo c acoo Aecap Oyxo (ep). o peae Bapa epoa (Moca).

Cooo: 4M. 2004. 19.

pooupoaue paumu oumo...

cooa a oxo ocoaec a eop o a, papaoao Ma-eao [1]. B cooec c o eope eoey coce p ocox a opeoce opeoc ycexe, opeoc aa opeoc o ac. opeoc ycexe oo peca e ca apa cooo aeca, yaoo oce oocpo o aa. Oco pepe oa ycexa ec a cao eoe oee ocaeo aa cpeca. oop o oax, Ma-ea opaec a opeoc o ac nompeocm auuauu. oc, pya, oe ooae aoooe c eoe o, a ae eae ce o opee e opeoc aa.

aa ac, oece a pyoo cyea, popee e coxpaee opo a o aee ee opeoc o ac. ae pooopcye e, ac aa coa eca aac, x cea pyo p p: o ac e coa py pya. Ma-ea [1, p. 314359] eocppye, a opee peopccoe pee oce coao cpaeoc cooae c pa cace oo-o eaco o ea cacaex aco ec cy eo ey unepco omuaue (pap ey coo opeoc o ac o opeoc aa) ocey oa.

O o e e Toac oc e eaa [2], oop o eyeo ea ac y cex y. Oa yx pa oo unepco omuauu aa poae pea pa Tx aepae: O pe ea opo e oo aoy-o eo ey, o ce cpae, oey, eoy py [3, p. 18].

Ce unepco omuauu oapye cye x peea CA opa ya. aa pecc-oepe P. Xoepaa 6 apa 2003 .: M ye e pe pae pa cac pacoo apoa.

C o pe Ma-eaa [1, p. 35], peopcce e pa pec coa yaap e e. pepa oox e oy cy o eco-peoe Beoo poye CA [4] peco oxo a opa peep-cpa Beop a To pa, oa o a: Ha eoxoo opee oe pacee aoae eoc ooo ooe (Hooc --C. 1999. 6 ce.), a ae aoeoe ee ececx oax o eo aaec o , a e oo [5].

aaa co, ceecyx o pa oa, eoxo: 1) oepa ccea oe-aaa, cae a cooecy coape, coe pacoa o, cp e ecax;

2) oao coap;

3) ec, a oopx oo o poep oe ooceo a pa pa ey aeop opeoc o ac aa ( ca yee pecac ec, cae c oe oa).

opooa peaaeo epeo poeyp o oopao ecoo pax eco o poao o ecx poee o eox oyeo. p x oope pyoocoac ece peoae: o ec coycoa aay oo. Ca e o oy o e (oa ocoa a pe ax cox, a poae . o epa), o a co, a cyae oea .. Xaa cop eaa e: c 24 o 4 ayca 1914 . [6], oceoo epeo opa epe aao epo poo o.

pooupoaue paumu oumo...

Bo ocoe cee o oc ecax, oceoax ae cceoa (c. ae poee 1).

B ece Apcoaa Mp (421 . o ..) [7] po Ac o o Tp oaec eo epxo a ye, o po c eca o pe. opac o ea, o , o o ya c a cay epy, papaee paeoc e.

Ocac o o, o aep o pa eepe oo yo ec co po. Copa e, Tp ooae ae, apa xo eepy. o pa a cooe.

Coa poa . o epa (1885 .) [8] oc ae cop occa eo axepco opoe a ceepe pa oe XIX . Coaa ecpaeoc caoc eoco, axep opay aacoy, oopa pepa aec a aaa, ac o oca. Paccpe ooo axepo coaa oo oe aacoe. Hecop a eyay, axep pooa aec a yee yyee.

eo oco coee co copo oeo o Bepo a Caea O pe [9]. o yeo coye c pecc oea ax co, a passchendaele gallipoli, o oepac o oca o epo po o o, .e. ea yopee coa o. ae ocpe cc, cp oox coax, o ye o oea oe oepoy coap? Ec yacc, pa ee cxo o o oe c oo oaooo coap, o cae eco apyeo oy eo paoo cocooc. opyc oecx eco coco 19 cxo ope o oe 22 o .

Hoea peccaa Teopa Apec eece [10] coco 19 ex ce ey y py e po c 1932-o o 1934 . Mac ee aepac e pe, a eo y py Map y ee. O apep o Xyoeceo aepee Ca-paco. epeca aaec oc e opae Mapa epa. B aoa-coaceco P. Xoepaa epa Mapo o e poaa oceeo oae ae eae ac. Caaa Mac, oya ca epa, oaae, ae oope oae epeea, pocxo c eo pyo.

Ocae ec oce pea oa. ep opyc eco o epo poo oe. cop eaa e eca Xaa opaae co epo c 24 1914 ., oa Acpo-Bep pea yay Cep, o 4 ayca 1914 . cpao ae ece Beopae yaya epa: xpoooeco ope pecae oa ece eepa, oe o cpeax epeoopax c oea p aopa.

B xoe cceoa aay oepc a co II o XIII , ocoy epa aa eo ocea cop a oooe Cep Acpo-Beepco ep.

Maepao aaa co pae ape-apee 2003 .

ocy cye peea opa ya, peep cpa To pa peea Caaa Xyccea. Tec c ye peea ya oye cooecyx epe-pecypco [11].

oopa e pe, oopx coepaoc yo ae o eppope oe: 170 cye c 11 cep 2001 .

o 17 apa 2003 ., oa CA pe yay pay.

Bpa epo oxaae e o Aacae pae.

ep cye peep cpa To pa epo c 11 cep 2001 . o 20 apa 2003 . (aa ee pacx oc pa) oye a cooecye cae [12]. eco pecaex a cae (p ae x ca a ooox opae) e aapoac.

Aapoac ae ca ep peea Ca aa Xyccea [13] epo c 17 cep 1998 . o 7 a 2003 .

pooupoaue paumu oumo...

cooac caap coap (ae popa) PROTAN, papaoa oepoo aaa [14].

PROTAN oe pae oepa, o pocoo ocea oeca co o coocae x c ceaec coap.

B ccee oe-aaa coape aa cco co, pac peeex o aeop, .e. coa c opeeeo ye, axoec eoopo epapxeco cpyype. Be o ep y ec coap PROTAN, oo pacpee co a eca o aeop oca oeco co ao aeop.

p coa oaooo coap, ocoy oopoo e ae aeop, a opeoc ycexe, opeoc aa opeoc o ac, cooa ce ye pecypc: aeop Oeo opoca (epc 4) [15;

16], aeop coap pepeccx opao [17], aeop co ap eoce accea [18] (c. ae epe-cpay O eo opoca). Paoa aca ae Macc ac [19] ae ocya coo opooo ye oa ac.

Moao coap coa a opao, o coo, pcaoe oo aeop, oe ae cpec oo cooeo aeop, o e oe pcycoa pyo.

B acoe epc coap (4.2) coepc 1056 cae o a eop ycex, 759 o aa 1304 o ac. B poe 2 a pep ax co.

Aop paee ye peoca oaaeca eoc oaooo coap [20;

21, p. 391396;

22]. B xoe cceo a pa xyoecex oyeax eco, oc ax pae oa, oye oaoe po:

yeee papa ey o ac aaye oa.

Tp cya cppy oyee peya [22;

23].

P. Xoepaa 1. B poae Tocoo Boa p (18651869), e oca aoeooce o c 1805-o o 1812 ., pap ey o peoc o ac opeoc aa yea ec eo.

2. B oepoao xpooo Co, oope p e o Bopo poo oe. 19311944 [24], pap pe cae coo U-opay py. Caaa e , a opee c 1931 . (aaee oco ap a Mayp) o 1937 . (paaca oa ca c 1936-o o 1939 . oc oe opee a);

ae, ecop a oaece e peoop, oa caoc eeo.

3. yc pae pc op 1962 . pecae coo oppep. B e Tpaa e: ocoa o yco paeo pce [25] Poep ee opoo aae cop pca, oop yaoc ycpa. eee papa ey o ac ece, ocae o eyapo pc ae oeeoe epo [26;

27], poo oe-aa oaecx epeoopo co po e cooa oepa, ceecye o oca oo caooaa copo, oopoe ooo oc coac.

Moao coap ooe ce a eee pae oa c oo aaa ececoo coepa cooecyx oyeo. o ocoeo eoxoo, oa o xo -o opo.

Aa opyca eco o paco oe peca oco epec, a a aao e o eco, oep c poo. aa po ooac eee cy e opa ya epo c 11 cep 2001 . o 17 apa 2003 . 19 apa cao co, o poo oaac ep. Oe ax, oeax aay, oaac ooo e ae oooce oepo popa oe-aaa PROTAN;

copoc oa ax a opee aopo.

pee y oac yay 17 apa 2003 . 20:01 (oc pooupoaue paumu oumo...

ooo caapoo pee). o cyee o oae o pey, ec opyc 170 cye aoo poaapoa, a oyee peya oopae a pa e ypo 18 apa 2003 . Boa aaac a cey e.

He pecae oyee peya pa, a oopx aa oa oeae epeoy papy ey a c aae.

B oee Apec eece ao epec pe ca ec ce Mapa, opaee Macy epa . a oaoc, pap ey ac (apacae) o (ocaeae) papyee py pace o epe oo, a Mapa ce oe oe cepa yeae, a ae aae a (pc. 1).

co co - - - - - 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 ec ce Mapa ya M (Mxe, epa) Puc. 1. ocmeneoe yeueue papa ey acm u auuaue ecmu nucax Mapmua ya Macy mey ue peccaa Teopa Apec euecme Pap (ac yc aa) P. Xoepaa B ec cax Mapa (3361 coo, oopx 942 pa x) oapyaec, ae yao, poc oa epco oa. B cax e Maca, apo, e pao pap a ey ac o.

B poae epa o, oecye o co ao ope, oeaec yeee ca ey o ac a poe 40 a.

B cxax Bepoa Caea O oe cpeee aee papa (ey ac aae) cocao cxax, oc ex oe, 0,1 ocex 2,4 (paa = 2,5).

eca Apcoaa Mp a oeea a 15 ycox ac e, o 783 coa ao. B ao py epaypx po ee Mp pecae coo oppep: eca ec o py. Moo oa yee papa ey o ac, o oepae pc. 2: ecop a aae papoc, ecoea oa ee papa.

- - - cpoe cpoe - aae a ae - 2 4 6 8 10 12 cee Puc. 2. Pap ey nompeocm auuauu u acmu nece Apucmoaa Mup Pap (ac yc aa) ( pooupoaue paumu oumo...

cop Xeaa a poaapoaa o xoy ecec eoo ee a a apapa (31 ac). U-opa pa papa (p ecoeo paccea pecx oe) opaae oceoaeoc epeoopo, a oop e oa, aepaac oe oo (pc. 3). o a ppe ey e pea (ac 25), coa opoca epooc o, oa a oea.

yp a pea a Ac p c Oe e o y a y Cep ac 4- Pocc (Ayc 1) epeoop Oe e o Oe e o Cep ( 28) (ac 10-15) pa (Ayc 3) pepecc coe c aae - 5 10 15 20 25 ac Puc. 3. Pap ey ameopuu acmu u u ue Xaa cmopu eaamu e: c 24 u no 4 aycma, 1914 Coepae cye peea opa ya pe caeo y x oepo. Cpea 6 epa 2003 . ya ae a pe, oopo pee poec: pa ooea.

pya cpea yaae a 17 apa 2003 ., oa pee y yay pay. Haae (ecop a papoc oe) U-opa pa papa (ac yc aa) e eoaoc. opcee ope aep epo a Pap ac ( yc a ) P. Xoepaa peopaa, apec ee o, oopa oe caa eceoc. Ceye oe ae copaee oea papa a poe ceo epoa. Mey po, c oaeca cyea oce apa 2002 . (cao e o a o po) e ea pca aaa o. Bo pe yc oo paeoo pca 1962 . poee py o o c caoo aaa [21]. Ha ao pae oox cao e.

pa oo e a 6 epa 2003.

2002 2001 (ce p) (September) y a y (17 ap a) - c y e e - pepecc caa e - 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 cye peea opa ya epo c 11 cep 2001 . o 17 apa 2003 .

2001: c y e c 1 o 2002: c y e c 94 o 2003: c y e c 156 o Puc. 4. Pap ey nompeocm auuauu u acmu cmyneux npeuema opa ya B cyex peep-cpa To pa ae a ac poc, capy o opaca epooc o.

y cye peep-cpa 2003 ., oo oapy y pap (ac c aa ) pooupoaue paumu oumo...

pe ca epe ec oa. B ecox cyex 2003 . acpoa opaee ae, yaa e a peoaae ooea aa a ooeo ac. Ho pecc-oepe c peeo pa ao pao 5 epa, xoe oopo peep-cp To p yoae o entente cordiale (cepeo coac) pa Beopa, ceecye o o, o o e a o y. To e caoe oo poce o pecc-oepe c peep-cpo opya appoco 11 apa (.e. a 11 e o oa pacx oc pa), a oopo To p o oop o aee a poe paopyee paa. oo o o, epeco, oey ocyapco, e oepaeec eppop cec aaa, poe ( pe coeo peep-cpa) a poca pca o.

B cyex cax peea Caaa Xycea [28] ae oee poc eoea epco oa.

Aay oepc 8 pax coo: epe po ee xyoeceo epayp epe aopa peax oyea. B ao cyae yeee papa ey ac o peeao poc ooc, a yeee pa pa ee copaee. o ocoeo ao p pecaa oex oo.

Te e eee, oepe ax o eaeo o e ooey apyea. o acaec c ye peea CA, o ec oa oo ccea eca opa ec cyae cooa CA c aa c 1980 .: a (1983 .), aaa (1989 .), pa I (1991 .), Coa (1992 .), oc (1995 .), a (1995 .), ocoo (1998 .), Aaca (2001 .) pa II (2003 .). Toa e eo c ooo opo opo, oxaae pe pae P. Xoepaa epex peeo. E o coca opac epo epe pee e o: e eoe epco o a ooo oapy, oo oa oa ae yye. Bopoe, o eoxoo o poaapo a, o opee a cooecye pae o epe o oe, a oop oa a oceee cpeco cao c eeo. ae oo o poce ooe co o oepe, ocoae a peax co x, oaae ee pca.

M oy xo opaeoe, o aeoe ceeco:

oxoe, o ceac oee o aac a e, a o peea eooecco o. epoec caooc pooc xapaep paa o ceecye o o, o o e cya. O oa oo, o o oy pecaa, ee e caoc. Oapyee opeeeo o cacecoo eepa coax, peecyx oe, e co eo, a oapyee oo aa, o a o ca oa ce oe epecayeo ec. poe oo, aa co o o e aee copecoo oecoo aaa o.

Teep, oac a pooe, eo oop o o, o ec ape-apee 2003 . pae oo aoee eo pecayex o. Oao aoe yepee poo pe py yx ae oo, ceax o o, o o, o o oo ea (occepeap o ay, 5 eap 2002 ., ep c pae-2;

aa oa ae II, 25 eap 2002 .;

peep-cp To p, 2 apa 2003 ., ea, pooe Cae epa). To a, o oy oo pecaa, e oe oca oo ee peopa.

pooupoaue paumu oumo...

TEPATPA 1. McClelland D.C. Power: The Inner Experience. N.Y.: Irvington Publishers, 1975.

2. Leviathan / Ed. by T. Hobbes, R. Tuck. Rev. ed. Cambridge, England:

Cambridge University Press, 1996 (1651).

3. Greene G. The Quiet American. London: Vintage, 2001.

4. Fogel R.W. The Fourth Great Awakening and the Future of Egalitarianism.

Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2000.

5. Marwick A. The Sixties: Cultural Revolution in Britain, France, Italy, and the United States, 19581974. Oxford: University Press, 1998.

6. Headlam J.W. The History of Twelve Days, July 24th to August 4th, 1914:

Being an Account of the Negotiations Preceding the Outbreak of War Based on the Official Publications. 1st ed. London: T. Fisher Unwin, 1915.

7. http://users.constant.com/imagine/peace.htmf.

8. http://www.anova.org.

9. Scannell V. Of Love and War: New and Selected Poems. London: Robson Books, 2002.

10. Taylor K. Address unknown. N.Y.: Simon & Schuster, 2002.

11. http://www.whitehouse.gov/response/resources2.html;

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news.

12. http://www.number-10.gov.uk/output/Page5asp.

13. http://the-amazing.us/uruklink/iraq/espeech.htm;

http://home.12move.nl/~sh754597/Ereport/.

14. Hogenraad R., Daubies C., Bestgen Y., Mahau P. Une thorie et une mthode gnrale danalyse textuelle assiste par ordinateur. Le systme PROTAN (PROTocol ANalyzer) (Version 32-bits du 29 novembre 2003 par Pierre Mahau, service informatique de la Facult de Psychologie) [A General Theory and Method of Computer-aided Text Analysis: The PROTAN System (PROTocol ANalyzer), 32-bits Version of November 29, 2003 by Pierre Mahau, Computer Services, Psych. Dep.].

Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium), Psychology Department, Catholic University of Louvain.

(http://www.psor.ucl.ac.be/protan/protanae.html).

15. Stone P.J., Dexter C., Dunphy D.C., Smith M.S., Ogilvie D.M. The General Inquirer: A Computer Approach to Content Analysis. Cambridge, MA: The M.I.T.

Press, 1966.

16. http://www.wjh.harvard.edu/~inquirer.

17. Martindale C. Romantic Progression: The Psychology of Literary History.

Washington, DC: Hemisphere, 1975.

18. Namenwirth J.Z., Weber, R.P. Dynamics of Culture. Boston: Allen & Unwin, 1987.

19. Canetti E. Crowds and Power. N.Y.: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 1960.

P. Xoepaa 20. Hogenraad R. The Words of Swords // Personality, Creativity, and Art / Ed.

by E. Malianov, N. Zakharov, E. Berezina, L. Dorfman, V. Petrov, C. Martindale.

Perm, Russia: Perm State Institute of Art and Culture, Prikamsky Social Institute, 2002. P. 391396.

21. Hogenraad R. Fourteen Days in October 1962: A Content Analysis of a Nuclear Close Call (the Cuban Missile Crisis) // Personality, Creativity, and Art / Ed. by E. Malianov, N. Zakharov, E. Berezina, L. Dorfman, V. Petrov, C. Martindale. Perm, Russia: Perm State Institute of Art and Culture, Prikamsky Social Institute, 2002.

22. Hogenraad R. The Words that Predict the Outbreak of Wars // Empirical Studies of the Arts. 2003. No. 21. P. 520.

23. http://www.arts.ualberta.ca/igel/IGEL/Hogenraad_ESA.pdf.

24. United States Government Printing Office. Events Leading up to World War II.

Chronological History of Certain Major International Events Leading up to and during World War II with the Ostensible Reasons Advanced for their Occurrence. 1931 1944. Washington, DC: United States Government Printing Office, 1944.

(http://www.ibiblio.org/pha/events/index.html).

25. Kennedy R.F. Thirteen Days: A Memoir of the Cuban Missile Crisis. N.Y.:

W. W. Norton, 1969.

26. Winter D.G. Power, Affiliation and War: Three Tests of a Motivational Model // Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 1993. No. 65. P. 532545.

27. Winter D.G. Asymmetrical Perceptions of Power in Crises: A Comparison of 1914 and the Cuban Missile Crisis // Journal of Peace Research. 2003. No. 40.

P. 251 270.

28. Ruysdael S. Speeches of Deception: Selected Speeches of Saddam Hussein:

A Story of Propaganda which Began in Kuwait 10 Years Ago Today Is not Over.

N.Y.: Writers Club Press, 2003.

29. Laswell H.D., Kaplan A.D.H. Power and Society: A Framework for Political Inquiry. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1963.

pooupoaue paumu oumo...

POEHE O ee oec o Tec ee e ec a oec o co pa x co . Te op, 19 ce (12 op 6499 Apec eec e 1932 . 3 ap a 1934 .) .o, 40 a 178894 ep a B. Ca e, 41 c x 11693 O o e Apc oa, 15 ac e 11755 Mp . Xa, 12 e (24 c op 4 ayc a 1914 .) 89242 e a a e (a co II o XIII) pee op 170 c y e y, pe (11 ce p 2001 . 256773 17 ap a 2003 .) pe ep- c p 67 c y e To p, pe (11 ce p 2001 . 116415 20 ap a 2003 .) pee Caa 35 c y e Xycce, pe (17 ap 1998 . 105860 7 a 2003 .) oo P. Xoepaa POEHE a eop oa eop o-o co p ep c ex c py e a oe 251 Tpy, p o oee e* Hya ** 55 Moa, poca e ** 37 Ha epe e, acya o ype oc oco , o a ** pc C oco** 118 oxo , a opc o ** 54 oc o o, e o o ** 116 a op, yc ex ao ** 43 C epe , pepa Cpec a *** 15 e a, oopyoa poa ** 158 eo, o y p o ce*** 46 ppoc, o e e c a aa , Tpy*** yca Aa o* 96 Cy py, oe a Co a oe O e oe e c e, oee e* yxaa e Aa ** 427 Co pooa , y O oec o, pa a yc *** epae C opo *** 56 O e, oe a Coa 44 Ce , oc a o oe 35 Be, ay oe c e*** pooupoaue paumu oumo...

Ooaue npuoeu a eop oa eop o-o co p ep Bac ec oe, Bac ** c paeoc Ope e e ac *** 35 Ocooa , o o ep ac *** 53 e , ca o e ac *** 9 o , coe oa o ac *** 300 Bpa, opa c Ba oe c e c 63 Cy, a oo ac *** B e e 62 a papx, c yac ac *** Poe yac 23 ccap, opa op ac *** o cepa , Coa o p a*** o a Bac e ao a , o o o*** oc oc oa Oc a o e ac e oo a, coa*** eppoppoa * aeop coap pepeccx opao [17].

** aeop apapcoo cxocoooecoo coap, epc 4 [15].

*** aeop coap eoce acea [29].




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