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T.B. yoa (Moca) MOEPOBAHE HAM EPAOT (o a pa Pocc 19962001 .) Ca ocea ocpoe aay pepeccox epoceex oee a epao

Pocc c yeo peex ao.

peoe aop oca a pepeccoo acoc o eco pep, ca epeop cex oox apao. Ope ee pep ocpoe epoceex oee. poeeo cpae e poox oooce pepeccox epoceex oee.

ee coa: pepeccoa oe, epoceea oe, a a, peeo a, pep aeca oe.

poe epao c ocaoo co o ce pe. Moe cooo ooc ac pe x c pax oe pe [1;

2;

3]. B Pocc ee epao pecae oco epec cceoa, a a e oec o ee, xapaep pyx cpa.

a eco, poccc po pya oaec ae cyeceo o paepa eeo oo [4, c. 1424;

5, c. 232248].

o a cya apoooecx cceoa p Mcepce oo Poccco eepa oxo e co ca 1998 . 1475 p. py., 1999 3100 p. py. [4, c. 1424].

Taa Bacaoa yoa aa execx ay, oe, oopa aep pao cooo MC.

Cooo: 4M. 2003. 16.

Moeupoaue uauu epaomu o cocae cooeceo 54% 65% oooo aooo ypeeo poya cpa.

Paep eeo oo e oo a cay e paoy, ea ee aco o, o e cpyypy epao, apy poopoae pa cya a pe pya.

Oco peooee poooo cceoa ac oooc oceo yec e eeo oo p paccope epao a cceoo eea co ao-ooeco cce. eco, o cce oxo aaec paccope cex eeo cce x ao c py c pyo. a ee ccee oaae coc a, o o ex, o xapaepy o e ee e cce, .e., ec p cceoa a epao yec ay ee pyx coao-ooecx oaaee, oo oapy pea pe pa epa o.

cxo ocooo peooe cceoa, a copypoaa aaa ocpoe oe, yae e pax coao-ooecx oaaee. Ta a aoe e x oaaee peao oe o apyac e cpay, a epe eoop poeyo pee, oe e peeo c (a).

B aece aeaecoo oecee pee aa c ooac pepecco aa epoceeoe oepoae.

Meo pepecc ec aoee pacpocpae o xoo ye aoo aecx po. O ao peec cooo ocaoo xopoo apeoe oa ce [6]. Pepecc (regression) oaae opaee cxooe cocoe, .e. opacae cyax oo c xox ax. Haoy eoc pepeccoe e o e p oca poecco, ecyx ocaoo caoapo ccee, e ocycye cpyypa aa.

T.B. yuoa B acoee pe o copeex apae oac opa ceo ex c e pooepe exoo. x ocooe ococo aa ec apaeoc ce ocyc peoa ca oapoc cce, paax oopo paac cceye e poecc. ec pep eoo cooa cyccex epox cee poopoa peya o opo, ae ooecx oaaee aaa a x coooecx opoco [7, c. 112114;

8;

9, c. 3641].

a cyae pepeccooo aaa, a cyae epo ceeoo oepoa cyecy pep, ooe oc po opex cxox ax yy pepeccoy yy epoceey oe.

B aece pep cpae pepeccoo epocee o oee cooac x pooe oooc. a e pooa, oyee ocpeco oee, cpaac c a ococaa.

pooa a epao Pocc, paccao o eoe Meyapoo opaa pya (MOT) poe ax, yaec eee ceyx oaaee:

1. aoc (. e.). Poccc po pya ca e coe e eopaecoo pca. Bece c epa oe, paccao poeax, aoc acox e ax opaae o e.

2. ec ocoo aa (p. py.). oaae opaae ay coa paox ec.

3. Cpe acea apaoa aa (py. ec).

4. opeee oapo ycy (p. py.).

5. oxo a yy acee (py. ec). B cooec c eoo MOT epao paec eoe, y pa Moeupoaue uauu epaomu oy oo e pcy. Hae aepax a, e xc peyao pyoo eeoc eoea, a pep, coa apaoa aa pyx eo ce, oa ae opeeeoe e a pe eoeo pee o e oxooc paoa.

6. ypc oapa (py. a o.). o oaae ee o oe e a pocccy ooy eo, a ceoaeo, a po pya.

aee o ecy oepa oaaee cooecy pe eoy ccy.

p ocpoe oee yaoc e x oaa ee a epaoy e peeoo ca, a ae epe 3, 6, 9 12 ece.

B aece cxox ax aece p oaae ypo epao, paccaoo o eoe MOT poeax epecex (ec) oaaex. aa pac capaac c ap 1996-o o a 2001 . (a cpea 1 ec) o aepaa eeapaoo ypaa Oop oo Pocc. Ocoe ee pa, ycaeoo c 1993 . cooec c popao Epoecoo Coa TACC.

epoaao oee oapo oppe a ecx po (paccapaex oaaee). Beop, cooe cye epaoe aoc, oaac cao oppepo a a ey coo, a co ce oca eopa.

oe oppe ey eopa, oocc a oc ypcy oapa, coca 0,28, cex ocax ap eopo, o oopx c aoc epaoa, o aee e peco o oy 0,15. Beop, cooe cye aec pa opee oapo ycy, a aooe, apaoo a, ypca oapa oxoa a T.B. yuoa yy acee, oapo a ce oppeoe ac oc, eae peeax o 0,71 o 0,99. Oao p ce peeoo pa epao a 3, 6, 9 12 ece aa oppe pyeoc eopo epao aoc a ey coo, a c py eopa, caa opaca, pec o oy aee 0,5. o opaae ececey epooc co ao-ooecx cce, oa o o aoo-o o ec oec e cpay, a cyc aoe-o pe.

a eco, oe eo ooaopo pepecc pecae coo ypaee:

n Y = a0 + X, (1) a i i i- = e Y ypoe epao, Xi i- aop, yae p ee cceoa, ai oeaee apaep.

a oaae paa, co coax poecco, pa axc cooec c eo aooepoc, pa e ao. ooy epe ocpoee pepecc pec pe opaoa cxox ax.

ocpoe pepeccox oee cooa ceye peopaoa, yepa oopx yopeec ece p aae peyao: 1 oeee y, 2 oe ee apa, 3 ocyce peopaoa, 4 eee apaoo op, 5 e aypaoo oapa, 6 e apaoo op opao e, 7 e opa o e, 8 e apaa opao e, 9 e ya opao e.

aoo apaa ooa oa ae o eo ai i = 0,..., n eoo aex apao.

Cyecye oeco pepe aeca, opeex, a coo xopoo opea opa pepecc ocae cxo e ae [10;

11;

12;

13, c. 96112]. aee R2 [10, c. 63] oe ae oc ae Y, oyex oe, pea a (epe ocey pepecce o cepc Y;

Moeupoaue uauu epaomu eec o 0 o 1;

e e aee 1, e oa o cepc Y ocec ocpoeo pepecce). aee F pacpeee epaCeeopa [11, c. 290] opeee a oc pepeccoo oe (ec oyeoe aee oe aoo, o pepecc aa). aee cac apa Bacoa D-W [12, c. 220] coyec cceoa aopo oo (eec o 0 o 4, cyae oc oo ae oo oop o ocyc oax ao-o cpyyp, .e. o ocaoo xopoe apoca cxox ax).

Ec oe oooe oeco pepeccox oee, oopoe oo ocpo, oyc yeoe co. ac eec ec oaaee, oope xo cooa aaa a epao. Ha a oaaee oo cea 9 peopaoa, oee oeco oox pepecco x oee pao 96 = 531441. Ec paccope apa ca aecoo pa epao a 3, 6, 9 12 ece aa, oy eoe aee yo yo a 5 (c yeo apaa e c a). cex apao pa ay o pep R2, F D-W. Oeo, o ao ocaoe aaa co pyoea.

copae oea ce peoea ceya eoa oca ayeo a pepeccoo acoc. Oa coye ce p pep aeca, o cae epeop cex oox apao. a pepe ec pep ap aBacoa D-W, a a cyae, ec o pae 2, poc cpeca yy pepeccoy oe e. Ec ae e D-W aeo o 2, o pep epaCeeopa F pa c ae pepecc, cpe oopx ay cac oe, oopx pep R2 ee aoee aee.

cee eoxooc paccope cex oox pe peccox oee ocyeceo oa oo oe oaaee. Ha ao ae oac o o oaae.

Ha epo ae ocpoe pepeccoe acoc epao o aoo oaae oeoc co ce T.B. yuoa oo peopaoa. ae cac D-W cex pepecc oaac epae o 0,04 o 0,6. a o pep epaCeeopa ypo aoc = 0, oaac pepecc o oaae 1 p peopaoax 17, o oaae 6 p peopaoax 69 o oaae p peopaoa 1, o ae R2 oaae 1 coca 0,740,75, a oaaee 6,3 e pec 0,22.

Ha opo ae paccapac pepeccoe acoc o yx oaaee, o oopx oaae 1 (a oc), e ooaopx oex aye ae pepe aeca.

aee cooaac aaoa poeypa, .e. ooe e oaae oc oo ex o pepecc, oo px ae pepe aeca D-W, F R2 ay.

p pee o ee peopaoa oe x oaaee yae x oe ooeo co oac T-pep [10, c. 64] aoc oea p coo ecye epeeo (cc aaoe F-pep aoc pepeccoo oe, o oocc e cey ypae, a oeo o epeeo ypae). B oe oeco pac capaex apao copaoc o 93. Cpe x e e 10 ayx o aoy pex pepe oeoc.

aeey cceoa oepac pepeccoe ac oc, oae o ce p cca, a ae aye o oe pep (e yea ooaopx oee).

o o e eoe ocpoe pepeccoe oe o cxo a co co aecoo pa ypo e pao a 3, 6, 9 12 ece aa.

Haye pepeccoe acoc, a ce oca e, cpaa o cyece eocao. aee ca c apaBacoa D-W pay e poc 2, a yee aee o oyeo a oe, ae oaa e 1 (aoc) 5 (oxo a yy acee) e peopao Moeupoaue uauu epaomu a p ce aecoo pa epao a 12 ec e aa (D-W = 0,88). o ocec ae ooe o aooppe cceyex aecx pax, ec cece aoo aa cpea (1 ec). aee pe p D-W < 2 (ae ooeo aooppe [12, c. 229]) ocec ceooc. o e pyec eee x epeex, oope pa aee 1 o peoo eca oa (epa ape aoo oa, opa epae aoo oa a aee) aee 0 cex oca x ece. Boc 11 x epeex, eap aoo oa ce e epeee pa yee ae. B poo cyae cya ae x epe ex oo eca ye paa 1 o cay y oeap.

Oopae pepecc ooe epe e e peopaoa.

eae e e ocy. eoopx oe e aee D-W o eaeo yyeo (o e pec o 1), pyx aaoc yxyee.

Cey a peopaoa peceoa e poa oooe e a a Xi, a a Y e yex oe epeex ( o ce eeo oo). oo cca aecx po ee oxo a yy ace e (oaae 5) a peo coye poecce ocpo e aecex pepeccox oee. aoo eca ce ae aecx po peopaoa eee a cooecye ae aecoo pa oxo a yy acee.

oo o ae peopaoax aecx po ooo opa, o oppoa. oaa e 1 cooac oe oppo 100, oaae 2 1000, oaae 3 10, oaae 4 100, oaae 6 1000, Y 1000.

T.B. yuoa a ocoy ocpoe pepeccox oee peopa oax aecx po aye oe cxox aecx po co co epao a ece, a a eo o a aoe ae cac D-W.

peopaoax aecx po e x epeex aye oaaac oe, aa oaa e 1 (aoc) c peopaoae 7 (e opao e ) oaae 3 (cpe acea apaoa aa) e peopaoa (D-W = 1,6). p oae y oe x epeex o oyeo aee D-W = 2,21. p aee oae oaaee 4 (opeee oapo ycy) 2 (ec ocoo aa) c peopaoa cooeceo 2 (oeee apa) 1 (oeee y) caca D-W pa coe ayee aee 2,07. p o R2 = 0,97, F(15,37) = 73,63, o oop o o, o o e e cpyyp, pepeccooe ypaee oce 97% cep c Y caa pepecc ec ao ( ypo aoc = 0,01).

Ta opao, aecea pepeccoa oe, oc aa ay epao Pocc, ae peopao ae cxox aecx po eee ax a coo ecye ae aecoo pa oxo a yy ace e, coep oaae 1 (aoc) c peopaoae (e opao e), oaae 2 (ec oco o aa) c peopaoae 2 (oeee apa), oa ae 3 (cpe acea apaoa aa) e peopao a, oaae 4 (opeee oapo ycy) c peopao ae 1 (oeee y) e epeee e peo paoa, aec p ypo epao cy a ece aa. oye poox ae ypo e pao pepeccoo oe ae oepy opao oppoe.

Moeupoaue uauu epaomu o epo ce opayeac cee cpyyp, oope ypoeo oepy ooece po ecc eoeecoo oa. O peca coo pacpee ee apaee cce, cocoe aaoy oy e. eeap peopaoaee ax cex ec cycce epo, aa a o aao c oo ec pooo. acoey pee peoeo ooe oeco oee epooox eeo e pox cee [8].

aaa ypo epao cooa epoce eo ae NeuroPro [8, c. 169188], cooo pacpocpae epee. Oco ococa aea c pyccooc, pocoa ye, oooc ypoe ce e aoee ( aeee) ax xoo.

NeuroPro ooe coaa oocoe epoe ce.

a co coco ecox epoo. a epo co pae a ce ca o cex epoo peyeo co ce epeae ca a a epo oceyeo co.

ep co ec xo cooecye eac o aae Xi (aoc, ec ocoo aa, cpee aceo apaoo ae, opee oapo ycy, oxo y a yy acee, ypcy oapa). oce co ec xo cooecye oaae Y (ypoe epao).

B aee coyec ceya opya epoa:

s Y = f (s) =, (2) s + c n e s = xi + b, xi oaae xooo eopa (xoo c wi i= a) ca o epoa peyeo co, wi oe (ec), opeee poecce acpo ce (cec a T.B. yuoa ocoe ae xox xox ax), b aee ce e, c xapaepca, opeea pyy aoa y f(s), aaec aoo co oeo.

B coyeo epc NeuroPro peaoa aop opa oo pacpocpae o. oce acpo eco wi(poeypa opeeeo cee aoae cee oeo ai pepeccoo oe) eopeece ae Y cpaac c pea ae xooo co (ypoe epao) ec oa peae aay, wi epecac coo ec c epa pae aopo. B aee pea oa epe oa aopa: pae cyc, opoa apa, copee pae BFGS pa ooc oaooo aopa Hoa.

a eco, yea oeco poeyox coe epoo x, oo oece paec y ooc ce Y. Oao o e ye c apae aeca ocpoeo ce. opo cocooc ce oca pe aoc, ac ax peeppyec aeaoy (o poy) opy. ae, o oop ocyecec c ee eco wi, cooeceo, opay oyay opy.

Oyee ce aaaec cyae oce a oya e ope aao ooc ce Y, o cyae e oooc aeeo copae o. aeco ce poepec o oe, oopy a eopeece ae Y a opoo ope. Haye caec ce, oopa ae ay oy a opoo ope.

p ocpoe epoceeo oe ypo epao aece aeaoo op peeppoaoc aoe e epoe aee aecx po.

o yoa NeuroPro peaae ce, cocoy pex coe o 10 epoo ao. poe cee o cpyyp, p aae ypo epao paccapac yxcoe ce. x ec opy, oeae oeco epoo cox Moeupoaue uauu epaomu [8, c. 22]. oeco epoo ao coe ac o ca xo o, xoo, eeo oyae op opeeec y ae ao acao eoxo oeco epoo coe. p ocpoe yxcox cee cooaoc acao eoxooe oeco epoo coe.

aaa a epao ocpoe epo e ce, coae oceoaeo aopo aec x po e ca co co pa epao a 3, 6, 9 12 ece. Bxoo ao ce c aec p epao, a xoe ec oaaee, o oopx, o a ey e, ac ypoe epao. aoo apa a ca aecoo pa epao coa 8 cee yxcoo 4 pexcoo cpyyp (o cy oox a opo oye). a aop poecpoa a ape eppoao ope. Oa, aaaea oye ce, cocaa 0,1 c ocey yeee o 0,01. B oc e cyae yeee o poo yxye apo caox oooce ce. aeco ce opeeoc ece oaaee acao oo, aaeo ce a peepo (opoo) ope.

aoo aopa aecx po (e peeoo ca co ca pa ypo epao) cpyyp ce e, ex aee o peepo op, oae e epeee a xoe aaoo epee pepeccox oex.

Hay apocao oooc oaa a ce, ocpoea p ce aecoo pa ypo e pao a 9 ece aa, c ee x epee x. Hepoa ce cocoa 3 coe o 10 epoo a o, p aaaeo ooc oye 0,1. Macaa o a, oyea a peepo (aeaoo) ope, cocaa 0,6. ao epoo ce opeeac a oc xox cao (ca a xoo ca). Oa T.B. yuoa eec o 0 o 1 e e, e e 1. epoo ce, ae ay peya a aeaoo ope, aoc oaae 1 (aoc) cocaa 1, oaae (ec ocoo aa) 0,08, oaae 3 (cpe acea apaoa aa) 0,11, oaae 4 (opeee oapo ycy) 0,34, oaae 5 (oxo a yy acee) 0,36, oaae 6 (ypc oapa) 0,43, aoc x epeex peeax o 0,16 o 0,48.

pooe ae ypo epao a ece epe, oyee ayx pepeccoo epoceeo oee, cpae c a ococaa, pacca o peyaa opooo oceoa acee.

Macaa oa, oyea a aye pepecc oo oe, cocaa acoo pae 4,98 (oee 60% peaoo ae ypo epao). Hyo oe, o pepeccoa oe, oaaa ecoo xy a ee aeca (aee D-W = 1,88 o cpae c D-W = 2, ye oe), oyea ee ayy o e oaae 6 (ypc oapa) c peopaoae 2 (oee e apa), aa ey pooy oy (aca a acoa oa 3,14 38,29%).

a ye oeaoc e, aecea pepeccoa oe xopoo ocae poecc, pocxoe ccee, e ee po paeo a cpyypoo pa. oo oc o a, o aya c o pe opax p epe aeca pepeccoa oe po yey poo y ee ceoc epaox ae o cpae c py pepecco oe, o apye oooc co oa pepeccooo aaa pooa coao-ooec x poecco, pocxox Pocc acoee pe.

Moeupoaue uauu epaomu B paax ye epoceeo oe a oyea a oa acoa oa 1,33, o cocae 16% peaoo ae ypo epao.

Hepoceeoe oepoae oaao cyecee pe yeca epe pepecco aao, oco oo px c e oe eoxox ce o cpoe oe oa ooc peyao.

TEPATPA 1. uuep M.. epaoa Pocc: cyoc, op, coae ocec ycox epexoa py: Aope. c.... -pa oo. ay.

C, 1995.

2. oee.C. Peypoae aoc epao a y co aoo ypae: Aope. c.... -pa coo. ay. M., 1997.

3. poono .T. epaoa eoc ocyapceo o pya epexoo ooe Pocc: Aope. c.... -pa oo. ay. M., 1999.

4. Boocu B.A., opua T.. Oaa eea ooa pea oc cace // ooa aeaece eo. 2000. T. 36. 4.

5. Huoaeo C., uccou ., Ma-apap P. Teea ooa poc ccx peoax // Oop oo Pocc. 1997. IV.

6. Tocmoa .H. Aa coooecx ax: Meooo, ecp a caca, yee ce ey oa paa. M.: Hay p, 2000.

7. pyo B.B., u M.. peee aapaa epox cee aaa coooecx opoco // Coooece cceoa. 2001. 9.

8. pyo B.B., opuco B.B. cyccee epoe ce: Teop paa. M.: opa Teeo, 2001.

9. Mooao B.., oao A.., Ceepu A.. cooae exoo epox cee poopoa aoox ocye a ocoe y poao cce oaaee occac // Bopoc cac. 2000. 7.

10. ucu B.B., ou B.. Cacec aa. M.: , 1998.

11. ypa B.E. Teop epooce aeaeca caca. 7-e ., cep. M.: Bca oa, 2000.

12. oyepmu . Beee ooepy. M.: HPAM, 1999.

13. pmaocu A.O. Opae eoa pepeccooo aaa // Cooo: eooo, eo, aeaece oe. 2000. 12.




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