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CTATCTECE METO AHA AHHX .H. ape, .B. oa (Moca) MOEPOBAHE HAM COAHO CTAHOB (ooee oepeco peae a eee)1 Ca ocea ocpoe

eo aeco oe ee ycao eo oea o e pax coao cxooecx aopo. o a opoca epc ae a ex epeex-ycaoo;

o oeac apaep oe , o oopo aee paccac ooe paeop a ycaoo.

ee coa: coaa ycaoa, oepoae, aa, ca oapoe cocoe.

B cceoax coax e poecco oo e ecoo aceo: papaoa oe (aecea oe yaeoo e);

coooecoe oceoae (pa paoa ae, ocpoee a, poeee opoca);

papao a aeaeco oe, cooecye po eop, aa ee coc;

cacecoe oocoae oe oe, oopoe ae ce poeypy epe epee x oe cacecy poeypy oe apaepo o p Hoae ape oop ooecx ay, poeccop, ae y aopaope aeaeco cooo M PAH.

Bopoa oa a ay copy aopaop ae aeco cooo M PAH.

Paoa oea p oepe P, pa 00-06-80353.

Cooo: 4M. 2002. 15.

Moeupoaue uauu couao ycmaou e ooepec cacec eoa;

ep a cooae oe poopoa ypae.

B oce cyae cceoax aepyec ae a oex aceax: papaoa poeyp epe, caceca oea apaepo oaaeco eope, cceoae aeaecx coc oee .. B ae cceoa ce aax e aceo oceoaeo peayc a oo o e peco oee.

B ao paoe o ycaoo oaec cyeoe ooee a aoo-o poa e, .e. ooee, oopoe poec eo oee (peao epao).

Caa ycaoa oepea co copo pax a opo oe ec. Ha ee oaa e oe ocoeca ocae, yco , e oee e opyax .. Hae ooaopoo oec e oaae ecpecaoo caoopaoo ee ycao eoea. a pao, ec oa eec, o eeo ao, a ae eee eoo epoa pee oca ec paec eeo. Boae ecece opoc:

oey p pax eex ex ocoec yca oa oe eeo, ae exa pecy oo ee? Ha opoc oo oe, aooepoc ee oppoa.

Opeeee oxo aay poe oppoa ycao peoe paoax aepacoo oa H. Pa ecoo [1, c. 175214], a ae cax [2, c. 7693;

4, c. 149150], e opypyc coepaee pecae o poecce a ycao aapyc cooecye aeaec e oe.

.H. apue, .B. oua aa ca pooae eay ya [3, c. 30 32;

5, c. 5053;

6, c. 164175], papao oopo cooa eoope e pao [7, p. 6978;

8;

9, p. 200219;

10, p. 525 546;

11, p. 153166;

12, p. 328], ocea aay ooe oepeco peae a eee. caoa paccapa ec a aea epeea, oopa poec epa o oee oeax a opoc ae.

yc eoop oe (pya) acae n eoe.

caoa i-o ea py ey oe pee t ee ey xi (t). poe eeoc eyeo ae ycao a ee co ype caap (eo eoo pa cxoa paa o), o oopoo eo ey a ycaoa oe ooc y y copoy o oece ex aopo. Bcoe ooee ycao o coceoo caapa ae cxooec co op eocoaoe oyee a epyc ey.

B oe ae oc peooee, o a eocoao coocae eyee aee coe ycao c ycaoa coeo aeo opye, a o oo ee eye ycao o cpeeo ae ycaoo aeo opye opoae opy coao-cxooec y cy, cpeee ee ycao copoy ycao peepeo py. poe oo, eec aae e e caap (co copo pea, CM, aopeo), ooee o oopoo oe oyae a oppepo a co ycaoy cooecyy copoy.

Ta opao, eya ycaoa a oepea pex coao-cxooecx c: oea, ca ocoa eeo caapa. p o c oe cy a a aa coe apae. Paeco y cooyoo oec x pex c oaae paoecue, .e.

eeoe cocoe ycao. Oe o y ee o yee ae ycao, o ee yee.

Moeupoaue uauu couao ycmaou eee ycaoo o pee oe ocao epea ypaee ceyeo a:

j j j j df / dt = A( fR j - f ) + B( fb j - f ) + C( fcj - f ), j = 1, 2, , n, (1) j f e aee e ycao j-o a oe pee t;

R(j) oeco o, opayx aee opye e j-o a;

j k f = f cpeee aee ycao y eo pe R | R( j) | kR( j) epeo py a j oe t;

fbj coce caap ycao j-o a;

fcj aae j-y y caap e;

A oe peepeo py a a (o paae e);

B oe epooc a (ceoae coce oy e), oe yaa;

C oe eeo caapa.

Moe, aaoe oe (1), cceoa [2;

4]. Ta e ycaoe poaapoa yco cyecoa pa oecoo (caoapoo) coco oe ee ycooc.

o epa oe a (1) aaac a a ee pyoc. Bo-epx, eoxoo yaa cpae o ayy peepey pyy, yp oopo pocxo opao oe ooceo ycaoo ee eo. Bo opx, ycaoa oa, c oo copo, ao o py, c pyo copo, oa e oa oo aeo, co po, .e. oa cyecoa oe aa cocooc ee ee e o oec e yaax e aopo. B-pex, ycaoa oa epo eo e ec eee cao poeyp epe. poe oo, oe coep oo apaepo .H. apue, .B. oua A, B, C ee apaep fbj (coce caap) fc j (aae e caap), oope o ope ee a-o opao.

oce ecox oo a peey cya oe apaepo oe ocaoc a ooe e oepeco peae a eee. Moae c xoo oe (1) ae cyae a ceya oe ee ax oeo oex o eeoo o epeco pea:

j xij = yii - xij = A( xik - xij ) + B(bij - xij ) + C(ci - xij ), j =1, 2,..., n, (1') k kR( j) e i oep a eepea;

j oep a;

xij epoaaa oea j-o a i-o a pea o ae o 0 o 10;

yij coppepoaa oea j-o a i-o a pea o o e ae;

bij coce caap j-o a o ooe i-y y pea;

ci e caap, aae o i-y y pea, ao cyae o ee cepa, paeoe aax o o e ae;

xik cpeeeea oea i-o a pea ea k kR( j) peepeo py j-o a;

R(j) oeco o, opayx aee opye e j-o a;

|R(j)| co eeo oeca R(j);

A, B, C oe a eee oe cooe cyx aopo (c. oe (1).

Coaco oe (1'), eee epoaao e oe i-o a pea eo ac: o paoc ee cpe Moeupoaue uauu couao ycmaou e oe a opyee, ooe ee o coce j oo j-o a caapa b, o ee o eeo i caapa ci.

oe caap (pacca a ycpeea oe a aeo opye) e caap, pa e cepa, oye cpaeo poco. Coee oco eo c coce, ype caapo. Moo aece aooo p oy oey oepeco pea a eee. oee oo poeyp oe o e cooaac ceaa ooea oe.

Coaco peooe oe (1), a pac capaeo py eee aaeoo poecca op j aooo aoec ee coce caap b (eo oee peapeoe ooee peae a eee), oop paec e eec. B paoe [6] peoea ope eea cxea caceco oe oo caapa, oopa oe yoea cey opao.

ye oaa, o, oea ep pa i- pea, j x pecoe poo ypeee epee coeo ca i j apa b, paeoo aax, o o epee pocxo c i j j j oo = x b. poe oo, peoaae, o oe a i i i peape opoc o oe oee oepeco pea epoaaa oea oeoo a pea ca eo acoc:

j bij = ki b + hi, (2) e oe ki, hi oao cex pecoeo, o co aoo a pea. py coa, coce caap oa oea bj epc aax, paa xc oo aao ocea acaa. B peyae ee pepeccooe coooee:

.H. apue, .B. oua xij = kibij + hi + ij, (3) apaep oopoo oy oee caap cocoo.

j j cpa aee oeo x cyay oy, i i oe oy ey coceoo caapa a eope ecoe aee pepeccoo acoc:

j bij = xij - i j = ki b + hi. (4) Heoxoe epa oe pecx a x oye ye opoca, oop peceoa e e:

c oo copo, cooepecy cpyypy py, a c pyo copo ooee oepeco peae a e ee aoo ea py, a ae cee a eee oo ooe coceoo e (ypeeo caapa), e peepeo py e cepa (e caap). Opoc pooc a aa: a epo ae aoo a opeeac eo peepea pya, co coa aoee x ey oape, a a opo a epac oea ooe a peae ee ooppe poaoe aee. Pecoea c cye II ypca ooecoo ayea MPA.

pee ocaex aa papaoa a o poca1.

ep opoc ycao peepey pyy a oo a. Macy ao, oop o apa a , pae 8. aee A cac xo peepey pyy a B, ec oya y oceeo cooyoc 6 oee ao. Coaco oye a, coppoa peepee py aoo. B cy ae, ec co aa oey aco oe, eo C. aey poe.

Moeupoaue uauu couao ycmaou peepea pya oppoaac ex o, oop o oca oe ceo ao. Ta opao, coaco oea, ceo oea a cocaea apa aoo oe.

Bopo opoc paee a e ac. B epo ac cyey peaaoc oe a p ox opoca oo ceo pea a eee. Bo opo oe coe ooee eoop ope a pea pea.

eycoo, o oxapaepoa ooee peae o ee oo, peoeyec aaa opoc o ce oo a pea. Oao o eocyeco, ooy oo pa ecoo opex o pea paoo xapaepa.

Opoc pooc cey opao: caaa aoy cyey peaaoc a oey o ae o 0 o 10 eoxo oc oeoc opeoo a acea pea.

ae cyey cooaac oea aoo ya cepo eo apyepoaoe ee aaoc cpeee ee eo peepeo py co cco xox ee o x oeo o aoy yy. oce oo cyey papeaoc coppepoa co oey, ec o o cae eoxo.

B paoax [3;

6] yac ao oppoa e ycaoo, a oeo pea a TB epaoo oee a. p o eacoc oeo aopo o a pea paac aece apopoo peooe e coo oocoa. B ao cae eaec pae ey aae oea pea ae epee ycaoa o ooe oepeco peae a TB.

Moo peoo, o oe aoo pecoeo, a epaoe oeee, oycoac eoop aopo .H. apue, .B. oua eo ycaoo epy oepe ooee oepeco peae a eee a aoo. py coa, peo e pecoea ec e c c, xo o pac epe opeo ycao. cooaac o e ax ooe a:

m xij = fkj + i j, i =1, 2,..., m;

j =1, 2,..., n, (5) a ik k = e xi j oea i-o a pea;

fkj ea k-o aopa-ycao j-o a;

aik aope apy, yaae a k-o aopa ey aaeo epeeo. Bce epeee ep c oppoao e.

ooe aa epoaax oeo (10 epee x xi o 15 ae), oaa, o poe oce cepc eppea aopx apyo oaac oe yoeope: 2 = 0,57. Pace o coppe x poa oea yi a peo ao e peya.

eee oeo cec poc ae, o cy o ee ycaoo o ea ax ooe, paccax oeo o x-ae y-ae, e, a a poeypa x ce opaec a pae cxoe ae. Te e eee, opee e ee ycaoo ooo. eceo, coppepoae a e oeo aec c ooe oeco ae o e e epee. py coa, co a e y ac pao e n, a 2n, aoy m-epoy ae j z cooecye coe aee ao ooe (yca j o). Hae z = (x1j,..., xnj ), j =1, 2,..., n cooecye j fxj ycaoa, ae z = (y1j,..., ynj ), j = n + 1,..., 2n ( oo e pecoea) ycaoa fyj. A eee ycao y j j-o pecoea opeeec paoc j = f - fxj.

y Moeupoaue uauu couao ycmaou oe opao ap oo ape aop x apyo oo axo aee ycao j-o cy j j ea o eo oea x, y o opya:

i i j ~ f = xi j, di i = xij - mi ~ e xi j = oppoae ae oeo;

i mi,i cpeee aee cpeeapaece ooe o 2n ae. Be di epe epoo coa ap (|| aij || )-1, e || aij || apa eopo ax ooe.

Peya pacea o oee ae po c Tae1.

Taua MATPA ATOPHX HAPO Bopoc Hoep ooe 1 2 Oea pepa a 0,705 0,164 0, Oea pea a 0,869 0,063 0, Oea pea acpoe yao 0,695 0,123 0, Oea pea poao 0,596 0,444 0, Oea pea peepao 0,685 0,049 0, Oea pea a, oe 0,799 0,125 0, Oea pea a 0,5 0,466 0, Oea pea copx capo 0,519 0,571 0, Oea yac apco peae peeo popea 0,539 0,388 0, Oea peyee ococ oapa 0,107 0,817 0, Coaco poee pacea, epa ooea oc e oy cepc a 40%. a o a. 1, ce apy (a cee 10- epeeo) a 1- ooey co, o ae pao ca ee eo oe ycao a oepec y peay: ooee ee ae y pecoea oaa coe oe cex o pea, opaee aoopo.

.H. apue, .B. oua Bopa ooea, oca 16% cepc, ee eee cc. e opaex o ee cax ox o oy apy a8,2 = -0,57 a10,2 = -0,82 ya a a opaeoe ooee a poaae a, a cae peao opa y oo ac cyeo poooooe y pyo. p o pecoe, oep ae cop, oyca oee caee opa o pe apyeo poye, e pye.

B oe o apya a epe p ooe oo a ceyy acca opoco ae:

1. Bopoc 2, 4, 5, 6, 9 aoee o xapaepy yca oy a oepecy peay eo. O e ao j y oppepoaoc c oe oeo pea (b ).

2. Bopoc 8, 10 opaa y copoo cyea eo epae o ooe peaoy oay.

3. Bopoc 1, 3 epepy cyeo o ooe pocopy oo poaae acceco y.

ocoy ao aae ac ec yee oo e oepeco peae, o cooa ooe aa epe ycao eecoopao o 5 epe e x2, x4, x5, x6, x9, e oee o co ae e a y eo.

Taua MATPA ATOPHX HAPO Bopoc Hoep ooe 1 2 Oea pepa oaa a 0,626 0,501 0, Oea pea a 0,855 0,203 0, Oea pea poao 0,734 0,561 0, Oea pea peepao 0,747 0,528 0, Oea pea a, oe 0,805 0,395 0, Moeupoaue uauu couao ycmaou a o a. 2, epa ooea, ea coe apy eppepyea a ooee peae, oc e oy cepc ye o a 60%. Bopa ooea, co caa 20% oe cepc, opaae ecy ep eeoc ac cyeo ax e, a apep, pe apoae apca aapo.

a oo ye a. 2, oe o pa 5 opo ca ae cex 36 ae o a 60% occ epo ao ooeo. Be a apyo a ce ocoa ca, o co a aop oo ca omoeue cmyemo oepeco peae a TB. a e o aeo epeeo cex 15 cyeo pe e a. 3.

Taua BCEHHE HAEH CTAHOB Hoep pecoea 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 fx 0,434 0,847 1,222 0,289 1,769 0,676 0,07 0,409 0,367 0,705 0,758 0,328 0,239 0,748 0, fy 0,225 0,462 1,095 0,344 1,456 0,525 0,168 0,63 0,154 0,654 0,652 0,548 0,022 0,375 0, fyfx 0,209 0,385 0,127 0,055 0,313 0,151 0,098 0,221 0,213 0,051 0,106 0,22 0,217 0,373 0, a. 3 o, o oce oppepo ycao a o epecy peay y ce eoe opoc (ooeoe aee coa fy fx), a y oc yec.

oyee ae ycaoo oo eep oe apaep A, B, C oe (1). Oao oo eo xoo epeec cpee ae xi, a cepa ci co j ceoo caapa b ae ae oe ycao.

Moo ca, o a cye ocpae oe c epa o o e ae, o cocee oe. o o p e coce caap b j ece c e caapo ci o e peopaoa ae ae ycao epe j oe di ooo epexoy o xij f.

.H. apue, .B. oua pee e cceoa acoc ee ycao o x aopo, a o opaeo oe (1), po aapoa cacece c ey coppepoa j a ae y, c oo copo, peape i j j ae x, coce caapa b e i caapa c, c pyo copo. Ca, o oe i oao cex epeex, oy ceyee pepeccooe ypaee o 75 epee (15 a e o 5 opoca):

j j j j j = a x + bb + c c + h x + const, (6) e h = 0,638;

a = 0,252;

b = 0,066;

c = 0,142;

const = 0,443;

R = 0,885.

Bce oe a o t-caca. Bcooe a ee oea eepa R oepae e xapaep acoc ey coppepoa a ae oca ya pyo oa ae. Oao ao ee o ypae opae eca oocpeoao, a coa oecea oppe j j ocoo aa oo oppee ey x y. Te e i i eee, coaco oy ypae, aoe e a oe j y oaae coce caap a b, acaoe j eo eya oea x. Hae aoo opaeoo o ee coooo ea ypae, o oy, oaae ecocooc aoo ypae oc ay-o ac o paex ee oeax.

aee pacca oe a ee e ax oeo co copo ooe eyx oeo o cooecyx caapo. o-peey cae oao oe cex oeo. oyeoe ypaee pe pecc ee :

Moeupoaue uauu couao ycmaou xij = yij - xij = A( xik - xij ) + B(bij - xij ) + C(ci - xij ), (7) R( j) kR( j) e A = 0,217;

B = 0,029;

C = 0,114;

const = 0,089;

R = 0,522;

T-cac cooeceo: 4,75;

0,82;

2,88;

0,86.

Bea oea eepa, paa 0,522, oa aec aeo ee, e peye cyae, o oycoeo oo aae o papoco pa oce, e cax epeex. Hecop a o ypae eo poceac opeeee aooepoc oppo a oeo opeeex o pea. Bo-epx, coo e ocycye (aa eaa ea), a o oo cooec c peoeo oe. Bo-o px, ce p oea pepecc ooe, pe e ooe o e py acao (A = 0,217), e ooe o e cepa (C = 0,114) o a paa ee, a e ooe o coceoo caapa pa ec yeoe (B = 0,030).

Oa ypae (5) (6) coacyc ey coo co oea. Teopeec ey oea oa oc c: a = A, b = B, c = C h = 1 A B C. oceee coooee o oec: h = 0,638, a 1 A B C = 0,650.

Oao o oca oea oyae: a A = 0,035, b B = 0,37, c C = 0,028.

B paoe [6] oo peya eppepoac a o epe ocoo e oe o eoc epeao o ypae a ycao. o eceo a, ec cpaeo oaaec ooaopa oe, oa j xij = ai f + ij, e ij cyaa oa. B ao cceoa peoaae ae ecox aex epeex, x a oe. Ho yae eee oo oo yca o, xapaepyeo ae epo ao ooe, o ope paac epe ce aaee epeee o opye:

.H. apue, .B. oua ~ f = xi, di i= ~ e xi oppoae e, a di cooecye oe opao ap ape apyo. B eo, a ae ycao, o ypae (1) (5) oo poo poa ee oeo.

aee a poee aa a co ycao , epeo oppoa ea epo ao o oe (c. a. 3).

Pace apaepo ypae (1) a ycao poee yx apaax, paaxc o cocoy aa e cocex caapo. B epo cyae aece j aooo pac e b, ec oea oe eoxooc oepeco pea a eee. Bo o j po cyae e b paccac a eopeece a j j e pepecc oaae x o pepecc b. paa, o i pace eac oo x1, x2, x6. eepoo oo opoco aece coceoo caapa pac e j b, a a oe oppe cooecy x pepecc ea.

Pepeccooe ypaee a co ycao (p coceo caape, paccao o yaa opya fbj a ocoe oe oe eoxooc pea a TB) ee :

j j j j f j = 0,157 ( f - f ) + 0,019 ( fb j - f ) + 0,105 ( fcj - f ) - 0,023 (8) R T-cac: 3,031;

0,438;

1,728;

0,365;

R = 0,785.

paee, oyeoe p cooa aece coc j eoo caapa b eopeecoo ae cooecye i j eo pepecc x o b, ee :

i j j j j f j = 0,157 ( f - f ) + 0,015 ( fb j - f ) + 0,110 ( fcj - f ) - 0,026 (9) R T-cac: 3,031;

0,438;

1,903;

0,382;

R = 0,785.

Moeupoaue uauu couao ycmaou Ta opao, oy ypae, ocae ay ycao cyea a peay o oece pex coao-cxooecx c: aee oeoo e peepeo py, eeae e coe ee, ae e eeo cepa. a , cooece ypae pec a ooo xopoee: R = 0,785. a peyx oee pocx acocx, e peepeo py oaaec ca c. Be eeo ca apa ey ycyae, paa, e co co, a cyae a oeo. o acaec ypeeo caapa, o oo oaaec paec (cacec) ea. o oy, o cyeo o oea opoca o cyecy e ayac o peae a TB, a o coao eoee. oo y o-acoey y x e coppoac coce caap.

epeco, o coaco [6] cyeo-coooo III ypca coooee ey oea o py.

Be coceo o o oee c, e ee cepa oea. o a oo oc, aepoe, oe coao peoc pecoeo: III, a e II ypc, c opeee o pao c opoca.

cpea oa oe (1) 15 aoecy x cyeo ee ae cyae :

ft+1 = ft + ht [ p 0,157 ft + (0,019 fb + 0,105 fc )], (10) e ft eop ae ycao aoo 15 cyeo;

fb fc coce e caap (c. a. 4).

.H. apue, .B. oua Taua 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 fR(j) 1,247 0,126 0,206 1,027 0,761 0,234 0,318 0,339 0,239 0,242 0,53 0,298 0,33 0,503 0, fb 0,946 0,218 0,218 0,218 1,528 1,091 1,964 0,8 0,8 0,8 0,8 0,509 0,8 1,964 1, fc 0,746 0,746 0,746 0,746 0,746 0,746 0,746 0,746 0,746 0,746 0,746 0,746 0,746 0,746 0, A = 0,157;

B = 0,019;

C = 0,105 oe , e pepeccooo ypae (8), a j- cpoa ap P cooe cye pao ac epeaoo ypae j-o ya B + C p = pii = -1 - jk n ca:,, e co pye j-o j n A j cyea, R(j) oeco pye j-o cyea, k R( j). a pao, a a oaa e 34 eoea;

oo yx cyax cocea peepea pya coco o oo yx eoe.

Caa apa P ee :

-1.79 0 0 0 0 0.333 0 0.333 0 0 0. -1.79 0.333 0 0 0.333 0.333 0 0 0 0 0.25 -1.79 0.25 0 0 0.25 0.25 0 0 0 0 0.333 -1.79 0.333 0 0 0 0.333 0 0 0 0.333 0 -1.79 0 0.333 0 0.333 0 0.25 0.25 0 0 0 -1.79 0 0.25 0 0 0. p := 0 0.25 0.25 0 0 0.25 -1.79 0 0.25 0 0.333 0 0 0 0 0.333 0 -1.79 0 0 0. 0 0.333 0 0 0.333 0 0 0 -1.79 0 0. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.5 -1.79 0. 0.25 0 0 0 0.25 0.25 0.25 0 0 0 -1. Beop caoapoo coco (ust) ecee ac (Re) cocex ae ap pax ace cce ypa e a cy:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Ust 0,62 0,713 0,7 0,666 0,589 0,74 0,811 0,72 0,709 0,732 0,718 0,783 0,8 0,859 0, Re 1,79 0,79 1,225 1,597 1,597 2,288 2,094 2,094 2,045 2,045 2,123 0,79 2,123 2,123 2, Moeupoaue uauu couao ycmaou (-0,019 fb - 0,105 fc ) e ust = p-1.

0, a eo yec, cocee ae ap cce e opaee ecee ac, o oaae ycooc caoapoo pee cce.

apaep ht ec ao xapaepco aec oo poecca oo caec oaoo cex ypae ocoo eo, oopa oa cooecoa pao ee pee t. B peao oee o opaae copoc ee ycaoo.

Moo peoo, o oyeec opoce ee e ycao a pa cooecye cyecyey ae apaepa.

ee ycao a o (ep) a pa:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 0, 0,385 0,127 0,055 0,313 0,151 0,098 0,213 0,051 0,106 0,22 0,217 0,373 0,107 0, j Ooa epe H eop-coy:

H = [ p * 0,157 ft + (0,019 fb + 0,105 fc )].

Oeo, eo ooe cy:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Hj 0,061 0,35 0,265 0,195 0,343 0,3 0,112 5,096*10 (3) 0,0390,388 0,0640,169 0,155 0,321 0, opeee e aa h cce (10) ye c a, o ece a ee ycao a 1- a po o o oy e aoy, a ooe oceye. o ooe c eop-coy pao ac opy (10), coe oce apaepa h.

Pae ee a ae x coo, oy j e hj aoo pecoea.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 H 3,449 1,1 0,479 0,283 0,912 0,503 0,873 41,795 1,32 0,273 3,435 1,285 2,413 0,464 0, .H. apue, .B. oua Teep aece e aa oo p ycpee e x 15 e hj. ax ae oy h = 3,934.

oca aoe aee ccey (10), oy ypae a eopo ycaoo.

p opye e ceoo a aa (h = 4) ypaee pae :

ft+1 = ft + 4[ p * 0,157 ft + (0,019 fb + 0,105 fc )].

Teye ae ycao a epo, pee, eo eaao aax pa:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 y 0,579 0,522 1,095 0,067 1,658 0,657 0,193 0,115 0,621 0,329 0,573 0,027 0,234 0,095 0, y 0,535 0,674 0,589 0,636 0,551 0,677 0,754 0,656 0,627 0,649 0,654 0,659 0,668 0,804 0, y 0,619 0,712 0,699 0,665 0,588 0,739 0,81 0,719 0,708 0,731 0,717 0,782 0,798 0,857 0, y 0,62 0,713 0,7 0,665 0,589 0,739 0,811 0,72 0,709 0,731 0,718 0,783 0,8 0,858 0, Pacxoe ye a 10- ae e peocxo o aco o ee 0,001. Oocee o ae oaac opa oo co.

Oco peyao ao pao oc poeee a oo o e peco oee ooo oeceoo aaa pocee a ycao cooec c opee eo eopeeco oee. Papaoa opoca, poe ee opoca, ee eeapo coooeco cpyy p py, epee ycao ae, ee cac ecx aooepoce a oe apaepo oe, poeee poox paceo ce o oc oe aa eoo cceoa poecca oppoa ycao, o cae ooe oeo. Ocoo cceoa ec aeaeca oe, opaaa opeeey coepaey eop, o eca opyeo e. Paye ec, oco oye oec aeo e cea, a opeeea ac ax coepaex a ooe a Moeupoaue uauu couao ycmaou e opaea po oe. B c c oo e a a, ooe oop, aocax poe, oope eae o ocya peeo ao paoe. epe oocc opeoy coooecoy oceoa pacea o a oo opoca. Bope e o eoooec xapa ep oocc acea a ycao a aoo.

e oee, x a ycaoy o eoo pecae, a peoea pocea cxea.

oo, o o yo oo ea oee o poey pa, oao, a oaa peya, cooa oxo oaac oe po.

Peya poox paceo e oo co pc ecy eoc: ec oop oo opoc a e, p o ax pyx e ye, o oa ycaoa ye ec, a o paccao.

B eceoc a axoc ee c cpee coax oya, ca oe e ocac ee, co aopo opoo, a xo cy ye pa aeaeco oe a y coy ccey. Ho a o ao epo oe: aa cya oa ye cox coax cce.

e co y ao ocac o aeaec a eceo. Ceee ooo ca epeex eoo y, apepoae ec o eox cocoo oye a o oee. o coco aco oaaec eca e, ocoy apepoae epeee oo a oee yco, e x cocae.

Ha ypoe apepoao oe o oyeo cac ecoe oepee oo, o eee ycao oe e (yc opeo) pocxo e ecopoo, a coo ec c opeeeo caceco aooepoc. Be R2 o oepa. Moe oy opoc: ec ea ycao opeeec oea (oea), oope .H. apue, .B. oua oeo oe oo oy peca epec, o ae poopoa ay ycao, a e opac pacco pee oo a aaex ao? oee eco coee y a: ae ooe ep aapoa e ycaoo, oyex a aee epo ao ooe? Oea a opoc, pee ceo ae, o e pexo ae epo ooe oaae cae op a, ocoy eco ecox epeex oo pac capa oo oy. Bo-opx, pooe ae a aex ox epeex oe eep opee o po o ae oo oo. B-pex, eoooeco ooe ao yec, o aex epeex oe ec oecee aooepoc, ae oopx oe ae oae coao eceoc.

B aee xoeoc caa, o ocaec ee oo opoco coe o ooy oooce aeaecoo pae aooepoce oppoa ycao, o ao oxo papee coe ocpyo, a a ao, o ac cea.

TEPATPA 1. Paecu H. e oe: opaaeoe oeee pacpeeee cayca // Maeaece eo copeeo ypyao cooo.

M.: popecc, 1966.

2. apue .H., Euo .A. eee peoe o coa o cpee // ooa aeaece eo. M.: Haya, 1997. T. 33. B. 2.

3. apue .H., Euo .A. O oepoa oppoa ycao oee // Tec ceapa o ooepoy cacecoy aay epoocoy oepoa peax poecco (eopo. 1999). M.:

M PAH, 1999.

4. apue .H., Euo .A. Moe oppoa ycaoo o p a cpyyp oea // Maepa ayoo pocccoo co ya (Hapooc). M., 2000.

5. apue .H., oua .B. epee ycao oea aopo ee a // Tec oao VII eyapoo oepe peee oo epoo cacecoo aaa ooe oee aeca. M.: MC, 2001.

Moeupoaue uauu couao ycmaou 6. apue .H. O cacecoo oea apaepo oe oppoa ycao (Moe ooe oepeco peae a ee e) // Cop ayx pyo Copeee poe ooo-aea ecoo oepoa. M.: TEC, 2001.

7. Simmons D.D., Penn J.R. Stability and Sharing of Value Norms among American University Student Cohorts in 1970, 1980, and 1990 // Journal of Social Psychology.

1994. Vol. 134. 1.

8. Hunter J.E. et al. Mathematical Models of Attitude Change. Orlando (Fla):

Acad. Press, 1984. Vol.1.: Change in Single Attitudes and Cognitive Structure. (Human communication research ser.).

9. Skumanich S.A., Kintsfather D.P. Individual Media Dependency Relations within Television Shopping Programming: A Causal Model Reviewed and Revised // Communication Research. Beverly Hills;

L., 1998. Vol. 25. 2.

10. Bartholomew D.J., Tzamourani P. The Goodness of Fit of Latent Trait:

Models in Attitude Measurement // Sociological Methods and Research: SMR.

Newbury Park (Cal.), 1999. Vol. 27. 4.

11. Volgy Th.J., Schwarz J.E. On Television Viewing and Citizens' Political Attitudes, Activity and Knowledge: Another Look at the Impact of Media on Politics // Western Polit. Quart. Salt Lake City, 1980. Vol. 33. 2.

12. Flache A., Macy M.W. The Weakness of Strong Ties: Collective Action Failure in a Highly Cohesive Group // Journal of Mathematical Sociology. N.Y., 1996. Vol. 21. 1/2.

POEHE Omemme, noaycma, a onpoc o cmeneu coeo oeu c a u cmyemo Bae pynn:

1. Caec a ax po? a He 2. ooec ece a? a He 3. aee ox oax a eepax? a He 4. Ocyaee ece ae-o poe (oe, oece, aye p.)? a He 5. Cee aoca. B oo eoea:

coce e aee eoo aee aee eoxo aee oe xopoo .H. apue, .B. oua Omemme, noaycma, a ceyue onpoc:

1. Ba o (oee):M 2. B ee (oee yoe):

a) Moce (Mococo oac);

) pyoe.

3. Oxa B a pae ocee p oa? a He ac 1. Oee, oayca, coo pa ee B cope eeop oee ooo aca: _.

2. Oee, oayca, cooyy oeoc eoxooc oepeco pea a ae eee o 11-ao ae: 0 oepeca peaa a TB acoo e ya ecoea... 10 oepeca peaa a TB pae oea eoxoa.

Baa oea .

3. poac Ba oa-o peaa opa: a He ac 1. B ao cee B caee oyc cucmeamuecoe npe paue xyoecmeoo ua oaa o TB oepec o pea? (o o e 11-ao ae).

Baa peapea oea .

Oea pyo oape . Oea cepa .

Baa yoea oea .

2. Caee B opa peyp oa o TB pea (coye 11-ay ay).

1) au:

Baa peapea oea .

Oea pyo oape . Oea cepa .

Baa yoea oea .

Moeupoaue uauu couao ycmaou 2) aeumx yamo (acca), acpopyx Pocc:

Baa peapea oea .

Oea pyo oape . Oea cepa .

Baa yoea oea .

3) npoao:

Baa peapea oea .

Oea pyo oape . Oea cepa .

Baa yoea oea .

4) npeepamuo:

Baa peapea oea .

Oea pyo oape . Oea cepa .

Baa yoea oea .

5) a, oe:

Baa peapea oea .

Oea pyo oape . Oea cepa .

Baa yoea oea .

6) nua:

Baa peapea oea .

Oea pyo oape . Oea cepa .

Baa yoea oea .

3. Oopee B peay (a TB) cnopmux capo u pau x oneco oopoumex ynpaeu? (o 11-ao ae: 0 e oop... 10 ooc oop).

Baa peapea oea .

Oea pyo oape . Oea cepa .

Baa yoea oea .

.H. apue, .B. oua 4. Oopee B yacmue uecmx (u eex) apmucmo oepeco peae a, aapo, e, ocy pyx peeo popea? (o o e 11-ao ae: 0 ca o acoeo apca ye ooc epe e 10 ooc oop).

Baa peapea oea .

Oea pyo oape . Oea cepa .

Baa yoea oea .

5. Bca peaa e oxoc e peyee ococ pea pyeoo oapa. Ha coo poeo, o Baey e, oy co oooe peyeee?

Baa peapea oea .

Oea pyo oape . Oea cepa .

Baa yoea oea .




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