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4, 2000 .

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x eeo cyecy o- po cpyeax eeo- Cpeeooa eepaypa oee x . B 1957 . pooecx ae e- oyxa a ceepe Pocc a ..apcyp ye oo- o eceo oeaec 19651995 . yeac a o 150 ax o pao aeoe oee eepay- pax eeocax o 0. pooeoc. B 70-x oax p oyxa (o 2.4C yce o 1.8C. Tpe x ae A.C.Mo .A.o e- a 18301995 .). Oao pa- yaae 30 e cocae oocee c oax, pax ceep 0.020.03C/o ycox E epoo o apa o e- op, ppoc eepayp poecoo Ceepa, 0.03 co e1. Xopoo ec oyxa a ce pe eeopoo- 0.07 a ceepe aao C opooepoe oea ecx epe, ecop p 0.010.08C/o y eeopooecx eeo: a ee oea oee o- . p o oeee oyc 56-ee, 914-ee p. , paec ocycye. o oeo a opao o Bce , aaac py ae ocoae oaa, o ee e eepayp a pya, coa co e- Ape eoopx cex oyxa. poepc a pa xo ee eeo- peoax -a oc ope ee cec pyo?

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cpoe oaae epx opo oe oepyc aac Me e ee p eoepx opoax (ep, poec ocec.

oye p ype ca ) o e eo Bepxe opo eoep mee p.B (empaa ym ).

omo..pa ca Oee epooeee (eopoo) / o pe. B.A.ypea. M., 1978.

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e, e oe yepeoc Aa oyex a ax pooy paoc pooa. Ec caoapax ax cee epoo ee oee coxpa- cye o poo pacpocpae aecx c epo ooe XXI ., o epaa epxx op ee oo oa oe cpe- oo pooo (oe Mepooe coco eooo eepayp oyxa eepayp eoepx oeceo oe py- 2020 . a 0.91.5C 2050 . opo, yee x oa e ee eo epo a 2.53C. Aocepe oca- , opaca y ceo a o cpo, o oo o oy pee opacy a oo poaa) a ocee cyae, ec ocoepo ec- 5 1015% cooeceo. 1525 e. p o oe cxoe aece a- pooeoc eeo- e eepayp epo o paep. aoa o, o pooecx epe a- e ao a oee oocpoe eeopooec- e cpae peae 180 e. e aa, a opaca e poo ae o coep- o eaeo pee ce e- e ceoooe.

eca, a x ocoepoc eoca Pocc, ac- B aece aoo p opaaeoc oca e- oc a ee ceepe, a oca- epa pocxox epec a yeo. B oe a ocoe oo paeeo. Oao x ee poooe paopex pooo aa 90-x oax oa peo copa- ocoyec a a oyac pae epo- ac, o eeo ee e caoapa Mappe-Cae e poo. yxye ocoepoc - (aa a), pacooe Cyecy ceap a- aecx pooo. oo a yace ooeo eoo yepeoo oee- p oocoa ceape eeoca. ec o a aa oac eo yepeoo oee aa cex cepeax o epo XXI ., eec ae oo ax eeoca aax eepaypa epx apa oxooa. Ta, o coy peya a- opo a ye 10 a 1979 1998 . ocac a 0.1 Ga v r i l o v a M. K. // Permafrost and 1C. Too ooce oepxo Pariglacial processes. 1993. 2 (4). P.99111.

4 coo coa o eepaypa B p . . oee CCCP. Ac o O. A., Hec o . . // M., 1975. pocepa e. 1998. 2. C.5357.

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300 oee, ae cye- opo e e 1C. pa B eepy oy ooce x o opo ye co- oo a ceepe epoeco o cax eoepx o pooac ec ac Pocc ocae 50100 po xo ceepa ac po pocaa oepxoc, o ce- , aao Cp 100 oo c ca e 250 , a a e Cpeecp- epaypa opo o 3 o M e o E. C., pa c . ., coo ocoop ae 600 16C. Mooc x epec o e o . A., Mo a o a . B opax copaee oa- co epo. p poox . C. apa poex eooecx po ecco pooo Pocc (aca e, ax eoep o- acaax oee aa 1:7 500 000) // o yaeax cce poa, ye a: yooe poaae eo oa e Ape Cyape. Hoo 2050 . oceeco a o epx opo a o eppo cpc, 1997. C.279286.

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aa yy oeac a oe ac eppop po oo Pocc. oy e o pace apooeoe oec- ece ee aca epe ce cepa, ocoeo e a epoy. B peyae epaa pooo. Ee a cooeepaypx c ycc aooopo pyox 80-x oax aac ec- x acx pyax. p o o, cecc pa a- e papao cce cpo- ee oayc eocaoo ax o, apyc yco- eo-poaecx eo- e co opo oc oepxoc, oy po- o eepx ep, o a- oco epyee o o accoe aap a eo- eoexece cce o.

execx oecax. Heo- Ceepa o papye. Oece ycooc co xoa ccea ax epo- Tpaoe coco oec- opye ycox epaa p, yaa a- ee aeoc cpoe- pooo oo, cycc ca a ce yce ocpy- eo oxaa pyooe oco 8 yaeo yee ae, peapeo yoo e Py a . .. cop aa c oa. ., 1971. x aye aeo oaa epe py, c P P O A 4 2 0 0 0 EOPA oy pao oe ocpy yaeo9.

Hapea eoxooc papaoe ayx oco paecx cocoo, o eeapaeo peypoa opopoa epo pe pyox ocoa.

Hyac epecope opa poepoa y aeo ox aax a coopye, eoxo oc ox oxoo oecee x ycooc.

Paoa oea p o epe Pocccoo oa yaeax cceo a. pa 97-05-65600, 98-05-64633 99-05-99425.

M e o . ., a e c P. M., a o A. B. // Bec. PAH.

1993. C.10901095.

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